Atalanta vs Frosinone Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Atalanta 4-4 Frosinone.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Atalanta, 27% draw, 30% Frosinone — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Atalanta at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atalanta vs Frosinone
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 29M. CarnesecchiG
- 16R. BellanovaD
- 31T. KristensenD
- 40R. ObriÄD
- 77D. ZappacostaD
- 13ÉdersonM
- 70G. GaetanoM
- 99E. ElmasM
- 17C. De KetelaereM
- 11J. RoweM
- 90N. KrstovićF
- 53M. PlaiaD
- 59N. ZalewskiM
- 57M. SportielloG
- 51M. SonzogniG
- 9G. ScamaccaF
- 10L. SamardžićM
- 8Mario PasalicM
- 41J. IdeleM
- 47L. BernasconiD
- 22L. PalmisaniG
- 20A. OyonoD
- 2G. CittadiniD
- 3G. CalvaniD
- 79G. BracagliaD
- 14G. CalòM
- 73P. MasiniM
- 7F. GhedjemisM
- 10R. SchmidM
- 17G. KvernadzeM
- 9A. RaimondoF
- 5W. AmeyD
- 89T. BobčekF
- 11D. BîrligeaF
- 16Matteo CichellaM
- 91S. DesplanchesG
- 34A. El AzzouziM
- 74Omar FayedD
- 40S. FiniF
- 70L. HasaM
Form going into Atalanta vs Frosinone
Atalanta
Serie A
- L2-3away to AC Milan18 October 2026
Frosinone
Serie A
- W4-2Sassuolo16 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Atalanta | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 14 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atalanta vs Frosinone
Atalanta and Frosinone have met 7 times in the records we hold, Atalanta has won 4 of them to Frosinone's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 4–4 at Atalanta on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 6 |
| Frosinone | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 27 goals, an average of 3.86 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
Serie AAtalanta 4–4 Frosinone - 15 Jan 2024
Serie AAtalanta 5–0 Frosinone - 26 Aug 2023
Serie AFrosinone 2–1 Atalanta - 20 Jan 2019
Serie AFrosinone 0–5 Atalanta - 20 Aug 2018
Serie AAtalanta 4–0 Frosinone - 23 Jan 2016
Serie AFrosinone 0–0 Atalanta - 30 Aug 2015
Serie AAtalanta 2–0 Frosinone
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Frosinone's attack rates 20% above Atalanta's, and Atalanta concede 10% fewer than Frosinone. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Atalanta and Frosinone
Atalanta
GoalsAssists
- N. Krstović72
Frosinone
GoalsAssists
- A. Raimondo80
- G. Calò51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atalanta and Frosinone drew 4–4. The model had leaned towards a win for Atalanta at 43% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Romano Schmid 1' for Frosinone, Nikola Krstović 14' for Atalanta, Romano Schmid 17' for Frosinone, Éderson José dos Santos (penalty) 33' for Atalanta, Nikola Krstović 45' for Atalanta, Giacomo Calò 48' for Frosinone, Elif Elmas 50' for Atalanta, Aleksa Terzić 82' for Frosinone. On expected goals it finished 3.89–1.81.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atalanta a 10.6% chance to finish in the top four: 12.8% after a win, 9.6% after a draw, 7.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.6%, 1 points lower than before the match.
For Frosinone the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 11.0% going in: 14.1% after a win, 10.2% after a draw, 8.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 10.2%, 0.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Atalanta v Frosinone has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 45% / 29% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 43% / 27% / 30%: the biggest move is Frosinone's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Atalanta win43%▼ −2
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Frosinone win30%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.