30 October 2026, 00:30 UTC

FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos Primera División prediction & result

Arequipa
Referee: Rudy Mendez
Full time1 – 1

Final score: FBC Melgar 1-1 Comerciantes Unidos.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% FBC Melgar, 23% draw, 19% Comerciantes Unidos — fair odds of 1.72, 4.35 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FBC Melgar at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FBC Melgar4%Draw92%Comerciantes Unidos4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Horacio Orzan
4'
Horacio Orzan
4'
⚽Johnny Vidalesassist: Cristian Bordacahar
9'
20'
Matías Cordova
Miguel Rondelli
28'
29'
🔁Piero Guzmánout: Jhon Sánchez
Lautaro Guzmán
45+1'
45+1'
Matías Eric Sen
45'
🔁Daniel Linoout: Alexis Cossio
45'
🔁Yimy Gameroout: Thiago Alessandro Salinas Melgar
49'
Juan Rodríguez
55'
•Thiago Alessandro Salinas Melgar
🔁Johnny Vidalesout: Franco Zanelatto
64'
66'
🔁Josuee Herreraout: Maximiliano Pérez
67'
Agustín Rodríguez
70'
🔁Agustín Rodríguezout: Jean Olivares
🔁Lautaro Guzmánout: Matias Zegarra
70'
🔁Nicolas Quagliataout: Marcos Portillo
77'
86'
⚽Jose Antonio·Parodiassist: Matías Eric Sen
90+1'
Flavio Alcedo

Match stats — FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos

34%Possession66%
12Shots21
4On target8
6Corners4
0.72xG1.39

Goals against chances

FBC Melgar1 from 0.72 xGabout what the chances were worth
Comerciantes Unidos1 from 1.39 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FBC Melgar 4-2-3-1
  • 21J. CabezudoG
  • 33M. LazoD
  • 5A. DeneumostierD
  • 3L. GonzálezD
  • 27N. CabanillasD
  • 66H. OrzánM
  • 25K. MindaM
  • 7C. BordacaharM
  • 10N. QuagliataM
  • 8L. GuzmánM
  • 11J. VidalesF
Substitutes
  • 90J. AlcántarD
  • 20G. GarcíaM
  • 36P. NunezM
  • 26M. PortilloM
  • 40R. YabikuF
  • 77F. ZanelattoF
  • 45Matias ZegarraD
  • 12C. CácedaG
  • 80J. D´ArrigoM
Coach: M. Rondelli
Comerciantes Unidos 4-2-3-1
  • 17Matías CordovaG
  • 40F. AlcedoD
  • 30P. GuzmánD
  • 6J. RodriguezD
  • 19D. LinoD
  • 18A. RodríguezM
  • 54Y. GameroM
  • 20J. ParodiM
  • 25Rodrigo Gary Vilca BetettaM
  • 11J. HerreraM
  • 9M. SenF
Substitutes
  • 10M. CarpioM
  • 99José Pablo Alejandro Charún ValdezG
  • 15A. CossioD
  • 50J. OlivaresF
  • 28O. PintoM
  • 13M. PérezF
  • 14Thiago SalinasM
  • 8W. AyovíF
  • 32J. SánchezF
Coach: C. Biaggio

Form going into FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos

FBC Melgar

Primera División

  • W2-1away to UTC Cajamarca23 October 2026
  • W4-2Deportivo Garcilaso17 October 2026

Comerciantes Unidos

Primera División

  • W3-1Cienciano25 October 2026
  • L2-4away to Sporting Cristal18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3FBC Melgar3316985638+1857
13Comerciantes Unidos33813124447-337

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos

  • 10 May 2026Comerciantes Unidos 1–1 FBC MelgarPrimera División
  • 27 September 2025Comerciantes Unidos 1–1 FBC MelgarPrimera División
  • 2 May 2025FBC Melgar 1–1 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División
  • 7 September 2024FBC Melgar 3–0 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División
  • 2 March 2024Comerciantes Unidos 0–0 FBC MelgarPrimera División
  • 2 November 2018FBC Melgar 2–1 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División

Leading scorers: FBC Melgar and Comerciantes Unidos

FBC Melgar

GoalsAssists

  • B. Cuesta156
  • J. Vidales141

Comerciantes Unidos

GoalsAssists

  • M. Sen113

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FBC Melgar and Comerciantes Unidos drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FBC Melgar at 58% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Johnny Vidales 9' for FBC Melgar, Jose Antonio·Parodi 86' for Comerciantes Unidos. Sent off: Horacio Orzan (FBC Melgar) 4'. On expected goals it finished 0.72–1.39.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FBC Melgar a 20.4% chance to finish in the top two: 25.9% after a win, 12.5% after a draw, 6.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 12.5%, 7.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FBC Melgar v Comerciantes Unidos has moved

First published on 14 Oct at 56% / 25% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 58% / 23% / 19%: the biggest move is FBC Melgar's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. FBC Melgar win58%▲ +2
  2. Draw23%▼ −2
  3. Comerciantes Unidos win19%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.