31 October 2026, 01:05 UTC

Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Américo Montanini, Bucaramanga
Referee: Steven Camargo, Colombia
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Bucaramanga 2-1 Deportivo Pasto.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% Bucaramanga, 26% draw, 16% Deportivo Pasto — fair odds of 1.72, 3.85 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bucaramanga at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bucaramanga98%Draw2%Deportivo Pasto0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
⚽H. Mancillaassist: J. Micolta Piedahita
⚽F. Sambueza (pen)assist: F. Sambueza
31'
⚽E. Batalla
43'
56'
🔁J. Perlazaout: M. Pisano
61'
🔁J. Riosout: M. S. Jimenez
61'
🔁M. Gilout: J. Obregon
⚽L. Pons
66'
🔁F. Hinestrozaout: A. Murrilo
75'
75'
F. Leys
76'
🔁E. C. Serje Orozcoout: D. Chavez
77'
🔁F. Leysout: J. Mendez
🔁L. Floresout: V. Cantillo
80'
82'
J. Mendez
N. Castrillon
84'
A. Murrilo
85'
90+1'
D. Merino
🔁F. Sambuezaout: A. Gutierrez
90+1'
🔁N. Castrillonout: K. Londono
90+1'
90+5'
D. Chavez
F. Charrupi
90+5'
90+7'
M. S. Jimenez

Match stats — Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto

64%Possession36%
21Shots14
7On target6
2Corners3
3.14xG0.79

Goals against chances

Bucaramanga2 from 3.14 xGless than the chances were worth
Deportivo Pasto1 from 0.79 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bucaramanga 4-3-2-1
  • 25Cristopher FiermarínG
  • 6Nilson CastrillónD
  • 24José OrtizD
  • 4José GarcíaD
  • 8Freddy HinestrozaD
  • 22Fabry CastroM
  • 10Fabián SambuezaM
  • 28Leonardo FloresM
  • 21Felix CharrupíM
  • 27Luciano PonsM
  • 17Emerson BatallaF
Substitutes
  • 5Adrián MurilloF
  • 30Víctor CantilloM
  • 19Aldair GutiérrezD
  • 7Kevin LondoñoM
  • 16Luis MatheusG
  • 3Martín ReaD
  • 20Aldair ZárateF
  • 32Nilzo RamírezM
  • 9Brandon CaicedoF
Deportivo Pasto 4-1-4-1
  • 12Geovanni BangueraG
  • 33Mateo GaravitoD
  • 2Fainer TorijanoD
  • 5Nicolas Gil UribeD
  • 3Joyce OssaD
  • 25Franco LeysM
  • 18Joider MicoltaM
  • 8Enrique SerjeM
  • 15Harrinson MancillaM
  • 7Jonathan PerlazaM
  • 16Mayer GilF
Substitutes
  • 32Matías PisanoM
  • 6Santiago JiménezD
  • 9Jorge ObregónF
  • 10Diego ChávezM
  • 17John MéndezF
  • 36Julián QuiñonesD
  • 27Hervin GoyesF
  • 24Kevin SantacruzM
  • 13Luis MarquínezG

Form going into Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto

Bucaramanga

Primera A

  • L1-2away to Santa Fe27 October 2026

Deportivo Pasto

Primera A

  • W1-0away to Deportes Tolima26 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Bucaramanga199823117+1435
18Deportivo Pasto1943121330-1715

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto

  • 6 February 2026Deportivo Pasto 0–0 BucaramangaPrimera A
  • 14 November 2025Deportivo Pasto 3–0 BucaramangaPrimera A
  • 25 May 2025Bucaramanga 2–1 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
  • 24 October 2024Bucaramanga 0–0 Deportivo PastoCopa Colombia
  • 18 October 2024Deportivo Pasto 1–2 BucaramangaCopa Colombia
  • 24 August 2024Deportivo Pasto 1–2 BucaramangaPrimera A

Leading scorers: Bucaramanga and Deportivo Pasto

Bucaramanga

GoalsAssists

  • L. Pons155
  • E. Batalla126

Deportivo Pasto

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bucaramanga beat Deportivo Pasto 2–1. The model had made a win for Bucaramanga its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: H. Mancilla 23' for Deportivo Pasto, E. Batalla 43' for Bucaramanga, L. Pons 66' for Bucaramanga. On expected goals it finished 3.14–0.79.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bucaramanga a 99.1% chance to finish in the top eight: 99.9% after a win, 98.9% after a draw, 96.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 99.9%, 0.8 points higher than before the match.

For Deportivo Pasto the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 70.7% going in: 39.1% after a win, 64.4% after a draw, 79.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 79.6%, 8.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.