Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Paranaense 1-3 Vasco da Gama.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Atletico Paranaense, 24% draw, 22% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Paranaense at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1MycaelG
- 25DantasD
- 33F. AguirreD
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 29G. BenavidezM
- 16JadsonM
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 37L. EsquivelM
- 7S. MendozaF
- 18K. A. Calderon VargasF
- 9K. ViverosF
- 23SantosG
- 6Leo DerikD
- 55Bruno BaldiniD
- 12GilbertoD
- 27J. PortillaM
- 5FelipinhoD
- 10B. ZapelliM
- 53Dudu KogitzkiM
- 8Joao CruzM
- 1Leo JardimG
- 55Gabriel PereiraD
- 4A. SaldiviaD
- 30Robert RenanD
- 2J. RodriguezM
- 22A. LescanoM
- 5S. SosaM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 66CuiabanoM
- 11A. GomezF
- 20BrennerF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
- 83Ramon RiqueM
- 8JairM
- 3Tche TcheM
- 9F. ColidioF
- 19Bruno DuarteF
Form going into Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama
Atletico Paranaense
Serie A
- L0-2away to Gremio30 October 2026
- D1-1away to Vitoria24 October 2026
- L0-2Palmeiras17 October 2026
- W4-1away to Chapecoense12 October 2026
Vasco da Gama
Serie A
- L1-4Flamengo29 October 2026
- W3-2Corinthians24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Sao Paulo18 October 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Paranaense conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Atletico Paranaense failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Atletico Paranaense had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 51 | 43 | +8 | 54 |
| 11 | Vasco da Gama | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama
- 10 May 2026Vasco da Gama 1–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 12 September 2024Atletico Paranaense 2–1 Vasco da GamaCopa Do Brasil
- 29 August 2024Vasco da Gama 2–1 Atletico ParanaenseCopa Do Brasil
- 27 August 2024Vasco da Gama 2–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 5 May 2024Atletico Paranaense 1–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 25 November 2023Atletico Paranaense 0–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
Leading scorers: Atletico Paranaense and Vasco da Gama
Atletico Paranaense
GoalsAssists
- K. Viveros213
Vasco da Gama
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 45 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Vasco da Gama won 3–1 at Atletico Paranaense. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico Paranaense at 54% and given a win for Vasco da Gama 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: S. Mendoza 22' for Atletico Paranaense, F. Aguirre (own goal) 61' for Vasco da Gama, Bruno Duarte 63' for Vasco da Gama, Gabriel Pereira 67' for Vasco da Gama. Sent off: Kevin Viveros (Atletico Paranaense) 77'. On expected goals it finished 0.39–0.71.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atletico Paranaense a 47.1% chance to finish in the top four: 59.1% after a win, 34.9% after a draw, 24.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.3%, 22.8 points lower than before the match.
For Vasco da Gama the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four: 3.0% after a win, 9.7% after a draw, 17.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 3.0%.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.