Internacional vs Coritiba Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Internacional 1-0 Coritiba.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Internacional, 26% draw, 23% Coritiba — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Internacional at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Internacional vs Coritiba
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22KauanG
- 15Bruno GomesD
- 25Gabriel MercadoD
- 18Jose JuninhoD
- 35Braian AguirreM
- 5Rodrigo VillagraM
- 29Thiago MaiaM
- 6Matheus BahiaM
- 28VitinhoF
- 7Johan CarboneroF
- 9AlerrandroF
- 26Alexandro BernabeiD
- 30Calebe GonçalvesM
- 8Bruno HenriqueM
- 16RonaldoM
- 49João Pedro Bezerra de Oliveira LoF
- 43Henrique MenkeG
- 3Guillermo MaripánD
- 41Victor GabrielD
- 44João Victor Alves de Morais FranciscoF
- 1Pedro MoriscoG
- 2TingaD
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 55Jacy MaranhãoD
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 19Sebastián GómezM
- 77Breno LopesM
- 5Nicolas FonsecaM
- 32Pedro RochaM
- 10JosuéF
- 4Rodrigo MoledoD
- 14Fabricio BustosD
- 7Joaquín LavegaF
- 36Vini PaulistaF
- 25RichardM
- 22Pedro RangelG
- 3MaiconD
- 66Rodrigo GeladoD
- 50Vitor Gonçalves TissiM
Form going into Internacional vs Coritiba
Internacional
Serie A
- L1-2away to Fluminense28 October 2026
- W3-0Botafogo24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Mirassol16 October 2026
- D1-1away to Gremio11 October 2026
Coritiba
Serie A
- W2-0Vitoria31 October 2026
- L0-1Gremio26 October 2026
- L0-1away to Atletico Mineiro17 October 2026
- D1-1Botafogo12 October 2026
What these results say
- Internacional failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Internacional scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Internacional conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Coritiba had two goals or fewer.
- Coritiba failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Coritiba conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Internacional | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 38 |
| 13 | Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Internacional vs Coritiba
- 9 May 2026Coritiba 2–2 InternacionalSerie A
- 29 October 2023Internacional 3–4 CoritibaSerie A
- 22 June 2023Coritiba 0–1 InternacionalSerie A
- 23 October 2022Coritiba 1–1 InternacionalSerie A
- 25 June 2022Internacional 3–0 CoritibaSerie A
- 8 November 2020Internacional 2–2 CoritibaSerie A
Leading scorers: Internacional and Coritiba
Internacional
GoalsAssists
- J. Carbonero74
Coritiba
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Rocha91
- Breno Lopes81
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Internacional beat Coritiba 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Internacional at 51%. The goal: Alerrandro (penalty) 90+5' for Internacional. Sent off: G. Maripan (Internacional) 90+6'. On expected goals it finished 1.59–0.64.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Internacional a 39.1% chance to finish in the bottom four: 26.9% after a win, 51.2% after a draw, 60.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.9%, 12.2 points lower than before the match.
For Coritiba the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 6.4% going in: 0.0% after a win, 2.0% after a draw, 9.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.6%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Internacional v Coritiba has moved
First published on 21 Oct at 49% / 27% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 51% / 26% / 23%: the biggest move is Internacional's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Internacional win51%▲ +2
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Coritiba win23%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.