5 November 2026, 00:30 UTC

Botafogo vs Atletico Mineiro Serie A prediction & result

Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro
Referee: L. Casagrande
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Botafogo 1-0 Atletico Mineiro.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Botafogo, 29% draw, 34% Atletico Mineiro — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Botafogo at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Botafogo96%Draw4%Atletico Mineiro0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

C. Medina
14'
⚽Edenilsonassist: Vitinho
19'
47'
T. Perez
🔁Edenilsonout: Alex Telles
55'
🔁Danilo Pereiraout: Matheus Martins
55'
🔁Paulinhoout: Kauan Toledo
64'
68'
🔁T. Perezout: Gutte
Marcal
75'
🔁Tiquinho Soaresout: Arthur Cabral
76'
🔁C. Medinaout: D. Andrade
76'
77'
K. Pascini
85'
🔁M. Cisseout: J. Santos
89'
🔁Vitaoout: Vitor Hugo

Match stats — Botafogo vs Atletico Mineiro

32%Possession68%
13Shots13
3On target3
4Corners4
1.6xG0.34

Goals against chances

Botafogo1 from 1.60 xGless than the chances were worth
Atletico Mineiro0 from 0.34 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Botafogo 3-5-2
  • 12Gabriel BatistaG
  • 5Nahuel FerraresiD
  • 34Gabriel JustinoD
  • 21MarçalD
  • 2VitinhoM
  • 88EdenilsonM
  • 75HuguinhoM
  • 6Cristian MedinaM
  • 29PaulinhoM
  • 90Danilo PereiraF
  • 9Tiquinho SoaresF
Substitutes
  • 13Alex TellesD
  • 11Matheus MartinsF
  • 59Kauan ToledoM
  • 91Domingos AndradeM
  • 19Arthur CabralF
  • 17WarlesonG
  • 33Lucas MonzónD
  • 4Mateo PonteD
  • 22Hakim ZiyechM
Coach: Tite
Atletico Mineiro 4-2-3-1
  • 22EversonG
  • 23Ángelo PreciadoD
  • 40VitãoD
  • 3Léo DuarteD
  • 36Kauã PasciniD
  • 25Tomás PérezM
  • 39Mamady CisséM
  • 10Gustavo ScarpaM
  • 5AlexsanderM
  • 92DuduM
  • 29Cauã Campos SoaresF
Substitutes
  • 48GutteM
  • 59João Gabriel Castro SantosF
  • 14Vitor HugoD
  • 31Robert AlvesG
  • 1Gabriel DelfimG
  • 42Wanderson VazD
  • 34Samuel Lima BarrosD
  • 53Pedro TocantinsD
  • 38ÍndioM
Coach: Eduardo Dominguez

Form going into Botafogo vs Atletico Mineiro

Botafogo

Serie A

  • L1-2away to Remo29 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Internacional24 October 2026
  • W1-0Chapecoense17 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Coritiba12 October 2026

Atletico Mineiro

Serie A

  • L0-1Cruzeiro29 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Flamengo26 October 2026
  • W1-0Coritiba17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Botafogo failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Botafogo scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Botafogo conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Botafogo34119144653-742
7Atletico Mineiro35149124440+451

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Botafogo vs Atletico Mineiro

  • 10 May 2026Atletico Mineiro 1–1 BotafogoSerie A
  • 20 September 2025Botafogo 1–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A
  • 20 April 2025Atletico Mineiro 1–0 BotafogoSerie A
  • 30 November 2024Atletico Mineiro 1–3 BotafogoCONMEBOL Libertadores
  • 21 November 2024Atletico Mineiro 0–0 BotafogoSerie A
  • 7 July 2024Botafogo 3–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A

The full Botafogo vs Atletico Mineiro record →

Leading scorers: Botafogo and Atletico Mineiro

Botafogo

GoalsAssists

  • Danilo Santos102

Atletico Mineiro

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Botafogo beat Atletico Mineiro 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Botafogo at 37%. The goal: Edenilson 19' for Botafogo. On expected goals it finished 1.60–0.34.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Botafogo a 12.9% chance to finish in the bottom four: 2.3% after a win, 14.2% after a draw, 22.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 2.3%, 10.6 points lower than before the match.

For Atletico Mineiro the question was the chance to finish in the top four: 14.5% after a win, 4.3% after a draw, 2.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 2.0%.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.