4 November 2026, 22:30 UTC

Flamengo vs Gremio Serie A prediction & result

Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
Referee: Paulo Cesar Zanovelli da Silva, Brazil
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Flamengo 3-1 Gremio.

Before kick-off the model made it 70% Flamengo, 19% draw, 11% Gremio — fair odds of 1.43, 5.26 and 9.09.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Flamengo at 70%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Flamengo99%Draw1%Gremio0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Samuel Lino
20'
⚽Pedroassist: J. Carrascal
28'
⚽Pedro
45'
🔁Ayrton Lucasout: Emerson Royal
46'
🔁J. Carrascalout: Luiz Araujo
46'
46'
🔁Marcos Rochaout: Joao Pedro
46'
🔁Teteout: F. Amuzu
46'
🔁Pedro Gabrielout: J. Enamorado
59'
Walter Kannemann
69'
⚽F. Amuzu
🔁G. de Arrascaetaout: Bruno Henrique
75'
75'
🔁Walter Kannemannout: F. Krovinovic
🔁Samuel Linoout: J. Freitas
86'
86'
🔁M. Braithwaiteout: Matheus Nascimento
89'
M. Villasanti
🔁Pedroout: S. Niguez
90+2'

Match stats — Flamengo vs Gremio

54%Possession46%
17Shots7
8On target4
7Corners4
2.43xG0.31

Goals against chances

Flamengo3 from 2.43 xGmore than the chances were worth
Gremio1 from 0.31 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Flamengo 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. RossiG
  • 2G. VarelaD
  • 3Leo OrtizD
  • 4Leo PereiraD
  • 6Ayrton LucasD
  • 5E. PulgarM
  • 21JorginhoM
  • 15J. CarrascalM
  • 10G. de ArrascaetaM
  • 16Samuel LinoM
  • 9PedroF
Substitutes
  • 42A. da Silva VenturaG
  • 49Dyogo AlvesG
  • 22Emerson RoyalD
  • 44VitaoD
  • 77J. GoesD
  • 8S. NiguezM
  • 52Evertton AraujoM
  • 18N. de la CruzM
  • 27Bruno HenriqueF
Coach: Leonardo Jardim
Gremio 4-1-4-1
  • 12Gabriel GrandoG
  • 14Marcos RochaD
  • 6Gustavo MartinsD
  • 4Walter KannemannD
  • 54Pedro GabrielD
  • 8E. NoriegaM
  • 11TeteM
  • 20M. VillasantiM
  • 17DodiM
  • 38Caio PaulistaM
  • 22M. BraithwaiteF
Substitutes
  • 24Thiago BeltrameG
  • 2Fabian BalbuenaD
  • 18Joao PedroD
  • 82WallaceD
  • 3Wagner LeonardoD
  • 10F. KrovinovicM
  • 50Bernardo ZorteaM
  • 9F. AmuzuF
  • 99J. EnamoradoF
Coach: Gaucho Renato

Form going into Flamengo vs Gremio

Flamengo

Serie A

  • W4-1away to Vasco da Gama29 October 2026
  • W3-2Atletico Mineiro26 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Bahia18 October 2026
  • W1-0Fluminense11 October 2026

Gremio

Serie A

  • W2-0Atletico Paranaense30 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Coritiba26 October 2026
  • L2-4Cruzeiro18 October 2026
  • D1-1Internacional11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Flamengo won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Flamengo scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Flamengo had three goals or more.
  • Gremio scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Gremio had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Flamengo3423747129+4276
18Gremio34910153847-937

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Flamengo vs Gremio

  • 10 May 2026Gremio 0–1 FlamengoSerie A
  • 31 August 2025Flamengo 1–1 GremioSerie A
  • 13 April 2025Gremio 0–2 FlamengoSerie A
  • 22 September 2024Gremio 3–2 FlamengoSerie A
  • 13 June 2024Flamengo 2–1 GremioSerie A
  • 26 October 2023Gremio 3–2 FlamengoSerie A

The full Flamengo vs Gremio record →

Leading scorers: Flamengo and Gremio

Flamengo

GoalsAssists

  • Pedro206
  • Samuel Lino129

Gremio

GoalsAssists

  • Carlos Vinícius111

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Flamengo beat Gremio 3–1. The model had made a win for Flamengo its most likely outcome, at 70%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Samuel Lino 20' for Flamengo, Pedro 28' for Flamengo, Pedro 45' for Flamengo, F. Amuzu 69' for Gremio. On expected goals it finished 2.43–0.31.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Flamengo a 80.1% chance to win the league: 84.8% after a win, 70.3% after a draw, 57.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 84.8%, 4.7 points higher than before the match.

For Gremio the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 44.3% going in: 15.6% after a win, 35.0% after a draw, 48.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 48.4%, 4.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.