Auckland FC vs Melbourne City A-League prediction & result
Final score: Auckland FC 3-1 Melbourne City.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Auckland FC, 26% draw, 29% Melbourne City — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Auckland FC at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Auckland FC vs Melbourne City
Line-ups
- 1Michael WoudG
- 2Hiroki SakaiD
- 25Luka VicelichD
- 4Nando PijnakerD
- 15Francis De VriesD
- 8Felipe GallegosM
- 22Jake BrimmerM
- 77Lachlan BrookM
- 10Lachlan BaylissM
- 27Logan RogersonM
- 9Sam CosgroveF
- 57Van FitzharrisM
- 16Daniel NormannM
- 21Isa PrinsM
- 17Callan ElliotD
- 30Joseph James KnowlesG
- 23Ronan WynneD
- 35Jonty BidoisF
- 1Macklin FrekeG
- 13Nathaniel AtkinsonD
- 4Liam BonetigD
- 2Harrison DelbridgeD
- 16Aziz BehichD
- 14Besian KutleshiM
- 24Kavian RahmaniM
- 23Medin MemetiM
- 19Quinn MacNicolM
- 11Awer MabilM
- 15Andrew NabboutF
- 9Max CaputoF
- 7Mathew LeckieF
- 41Lawrence WongM
- 40James NieuwenhuizenG
- 22Peter AntoniouD
- 39Roland BallahF
- 77Takeshi KanamoriF
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Auckland FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 5 |
| 4 | Melbourne City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Auckland FC vs Melbourne City
- 2 May 2026Auckland FC 1–1 Melbourne CityA-League
- 28 February 2026Auckland FC 3–0 Melbourne CityA-League
- 16 January 2026Melbourne City 2–1 Auckland FCA-League
- 18 January 2025Auckland FC 3–0 Melbourne CityA-League
- 15 December 2024Melbourne City 2–2 Auckland FCA-League
Leading scorers: Auckland FC and Melbourne City
Auckland FC
GoalsAssists
- L. Bayliss20
Melbourne City
GoalsAssists
- A. Nabbout20
- E. Marcondes12
- Q. Macnicol10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Auckland FC beat Melbourne City 3–1. The model had made a win for Auckland FC its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: L. Bayliss 35' for Auckland FC, Q. MacNicol 42' for Melbourne City, L. Bayliss 53' for Auckland FC, L. Brook 85' for Auckland FC.
How the call on Auckland FC v Melbourne City has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 45% / 26% / 29%: the biggest move is Auckland FC's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Auckland FC win45%▲ +3
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Melbourne City win29%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.