Audax Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Audax Italiano 0-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Audax Italiano, 28% draw, 35% Coquimbo Unido — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Audax Italiano at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Audax Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1T. AhumadaG
- 35R. RebolledoD
- 13E. FerrarioD
- 29M. OrtizD
- 3F. SalomoniD
- 19C. PinaresM
- 8M. CollaoM
- 7P. GuajardoM
- 28F. MateosM
- 2V. ZentenoM
- 11F. TroyanskyF
- 18N. AedoM
- 9D. CoelhoF
- 27M. FuentesF
- 25P. GarridoG
- 20M. JiménezD
- 14D. MonrealD
- 24N. OrellanaF
- 16O. RojasM
- 30A. UribeM
- 13D. SánchezG
- 17F. SalinasD
- 2B. GazzoloD
- 3M. FernándezD
- 16J. CornejoD
- 30B. ChandíaM
- 7S. GalaniM
- 14S. CorderoM
- 31Dixon PereiraM
- 10G. VadaláF
- 27L. RiverosF
- 18P. RodriguezM
- 26L. SozaD
- 12L. PrattoF
- 4E. HernándezD
- 1G. FloresG
- 8A. CamargoM
- 39Ythans Emilio Blanco AguileraM
- 35G. AlfaroF
- 23M. ZepedaM
Form going into Audax Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido
Audax Italiano
Primera División
- L0-2away to Deportes Limache2 November 2026
- D1-1away to Universidad Catolica28 October 2026
- D1-1Huachipato23 October 2026
- W1-0O'Higgins13 September 2026
Coquimbo Unido
Primera División
- W1-0Union La Calera30 October 2026
- L1-2away to Nublense25 October 2026
- W5-2Colo Colo11 October 2026
- L2-3away to Cobresal12 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Audax Italiano had two goals or fewer.
- Audax Italiano failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Audax Italiano scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Coquimbo Unido scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Coquimbo Unido conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Coquimbo Unido had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Chile Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Audax Italiano | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 30 |
| 6 | Coquimbo Unido | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 39 | 35 | +4 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Audax Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido
- 16 May 2026Coquimbo Unido 3–0 Audax ItalianoPrimera División
- 23 August 2025Audax Italiano 0–1 Coquimbo UnidoPrimera División
- 30 March 2025Coquimbo Unido 2–1 Audax ItalianoPrimera División
- 24 August 2024Coquimbo Unido 1–1 Audax ItalianoPrimera División
- 28 March 2024Audax Italiano 0–1 Coquimbo UnidoPrimera División
- 25 August 2023Audax Italiano 1–1 Coquimbo UnidoPrimera División
Leading scorers: Audax Italiano and Coquimbo Unido
Audax Italiano
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Coquimbo Unido
GoalsAssists
- N. Johansen90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Coquimbo Unido won 1–0 at Audax Italiano. The model had leaned towards a win for Audax Italiano at 37% and given a win for Coquimbo Unido 35%. The goal: Guido Vadalá 50' for Coquimbo Unido. On expected goals it finished 1.55–1.20.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Audax Italiano these chances to finish in the bottom three: 5.8% after a win, 17.2% after a draw, 26.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 26.1%.
For Coquimbo Unido the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 19.7% going in: 33.1% after a win, 15.4% after a draw, 10.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.1%, 13.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.