Universidad Catolica vs Deportes Limache Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Universidad Catolica 3-0 Deportes Limache.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Universidad Catolica, 24% draw, 27% Deportes Limache — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Universidad Catolica at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Universidad Catolica vs Deportes Limache
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 27D. MeloG
- 23Tomas AstaburuagaD
- 5A. FaríasD
- 26J. DíazD
- 3E. MenaD
- 20J. ValenciaM
- 11C. MontesM
- 14J. MartínezM
- 18J. RosselM
- 15C. CuevasM
- 9F. ZampedriF
- 8F. ZuquiM
- 25D. CorralF
- 1V. BernedoG
- 21A. GarcíaD
- 7J. GianiM
- 2D. GónzalezD
- 10M. PalavecinoM
- 30D. ValenciaF
- 13A. CanalesM
- 23CésarG
- 33D. EscobarD
- 2A. AguirreD
- 24A. ParotD
- 11Javier RojasD
- 25M. LlanténM
- 6C. FuentesM
- 16J. MenesesM
- 10L. ValenciaM
- 19D. CastroM
- 9G. SosaF
- 26M. ArturiaF
- 15V. ÁlvarezF
- 32V. CárcamoM
- 27T. GallettoM
- 5A. AlfonzoD
- 4M. FloresD
- 7C. MoralesD
- 17C. GonzálezG
Form going into Universidad Catolica vs Deportes Limache
Universidad Catolica
Primera División
- W1-0Universidad de Chile1 November 2026
- D1-1Audax Italiano28 October 2026
- L1-3away to Union La Calera25 October 2026
- W3-2away to Palestino12 September 2026
Deportes Limache
Primera División
- W2-0Audax Italiano2 November 2026
- W1-0away to Universidad de Concepcion25 October 2026
- D2-2Palestino11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Union La Calera14 September 2026
What these results say
- Universidad Catolica scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Universidad Catolica conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for Universidad Catolica.
- Deportes Limache scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Deportes Limache had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Chile Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 27 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 56 | 37 | +19 | 49 |
| 4 | Deportes Limache | 27 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 48 | 40 | +8 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Universidad Catolica vs Deportes Limache
- 17 May 2026Deportes Limache 0–2 Universidad CatolicaPrimera División
- 13 September 2025Deportes Limache 0–1 Universidad CatolicaPrimera División
- 19 April 2025Universidad Catolica 2–1 Deportes LimachePrimera División
Leading scorers: Universidad Catolica and Deportes Limache
Universidad Catolica
GoalsAssists
- F. Zampedri262
- J. Giani74
Deportes Limache
GoalsAssists
- D. Castro147
- G. Sosa80
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Universidad Catolica beat Deportes Limache 3–0. The model had made a win for Universidad Catolica its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Fernando Zampedri (penalty) 23' for Universidad Catolica, Tomas Astaburuaga 31' for Universidad Catolica, Fernando Zampedri 45+4' for Universidad Catolica. On expected goals it finished 2.22–0.21.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Deportes Limache a 48.5% chance to finish in the top four: 74.2% after a win, 49.4% after a draw, 36.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.8%, 11.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Universidad Catolica v Deportes Limache has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 54% / 23% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 49% / 24% / 27%: the biggest move is Universidad Catolica's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Universidad Catolica win49%▼ −5
- Draw24%▲ +1
- Deportes Limache win27%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.