Universidad de Concepcion vs O'Higgins Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Universidad de Concepcion 3-2 O'Higgins.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Universidad de Concepcion, 30% draw, 39% O'Higgins — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Chilean Primera División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
O'Higgins at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Universidad de Concepcion vs O'Higgins
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. BrounG
- 17M. GonzálezD
- 4O. GonzálezD
- 6B. UbalD
- 15Y. OyanedelD
- 16B. OgazM
- 25H. SalgadoM
- 10J. FuentealbaM
- 19C. MesíasM
- 7I. GonzálezM
- 22R. Funes MoriF
- 23P. RomeroD
- 40G. FernandezM
- 26T. RocoF
- 21J. EspejoD
- 14P. ParraM
- 8F. MaterM
- 12D. MatamalaG
- 34F. HerreraM
- 18C. WatermanF
- 31O. CarabalíG
- 3Felipe Andrés Faúndez GonzálezD
- 22A. RobledoD
- 27J. MovilloD
- 6L. PavezD
- 17T. AvilésM
- 8F. OgazM
- 25I. SchorM
- 28W. BouM
- 29B. YáñezM
- 18E. MoreiraF
- 32T. VecinoF
- 33M. BrizuelaD
- 20L. DíazD
- 2C. MoralesD
- 1J. PeñaG
- 34B. LeivaM
- 10B. RabelloM
- 30J. TapiaF
- 7S. TolozaM
Form going into Universidad de Concepcion vs O'Higgins
Universidad de Concepcion
Primera División
- L1-6away to Colo Colo30 October 2026
- L0-1Deportes Limache25 October 2026
- D1-1away to Cobresal10 October 2026
- L0-2Huachipato2 October 2026
O'Higgins
Primera División
- W1-0Nublense31 October 2026
- D1-1Cobresal24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Huachipato10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Audax Italiano13 September 2026
What these results say
- Universidad de Concepcion did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Universidad de Concepcion conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Universidad de Concepcion had two goals or fewer.
- Every one of these 4 matches for O'Higgins had two goals or fewer.
- O'Higgins failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- O'Higgins conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Chile Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 22 | 49 | -27 | 26 |
| 12 | O'Higgins | 27 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Universidad de Concepcion vs O'Higgins
- 16 May 2026O'Higgins 0–1 Universidad de ConcepcionPrimera División
- 20 January 2021O'Higgins 0–0 Universidad de ConcepcionPrimera División
- 24 September 2020Universidad de Concepcion 1–4 O'HigginsPrimera División
- 13 October 2019O'Higgins 1–2 Universidad de ConcepcionPrimera División
- 26 May 2019Universidad de Concepcion 1–1 O'HigginsPrimera División
- 2 November 2018O'Higgins 4–2 Universidad de ConcepcionPrimera División
Leading scorers: Universidad de Concepcion and O'Higgins
Universidad de Concepcion
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
O'Higgins
GoalsAssists
- A. Castillo90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Universidad de Concepcion beat O'Higgins 3–2. The model had leaned towards a win for O'Higgins at 39% and given a win for Universidad de Concepcion 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Cristopher Mesias Sepulveda 39' for Universidad de Concepcion, Harol Salgado 41' for Universidad de Concepcion, Esteban Moreira 45+1' for O'Higgins, Tomas Avilés 71' for O'Higgins, Moisés González 90' for Universidad de Concepcion. On expected goals it finished 1.28–1.32.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Universidad de Concepcion a 98.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 95.7% after a win, 99.4% after a draw, 99.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 95.7%, 2.6 points lower than before the match.
For O'Higgins the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 6.1% going in: under 1% after a win, 5.2% after a draw, 13.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.1%, 7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Universidad de Concepcion v O'Higgins has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 34% / 31% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 31% / 30% / 39%: the biggest move is O'Higgins's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Universidad de Concepcion win31%▼ −3
- Draw30%▼ −1
- O'Higgins win39%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.