8 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

Nublense vs Colo Colo Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas, Chillan
Referee: Juan Lara
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Nublense 1-2 Colo Colo.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Nublense, 24% draw, 50% Colo Colo — fair odds of 3.85, 4.17 and 2.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Colo Colo at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nublense4%Draw90%Colo Colo6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
⚽Arturo Vidalassist: Víctor Méndez
16'
•Arturo Vidal
20'
Diego Ulloa
⚽Lucas Molina Canto
29'
58'
🔁G Díazout: Lautaro Pastrán
🔁Gabriel Gracianiout: Fernando Ovelar
61'
Lorenzo Reyes
67'
68'
🔁Francisco Marchantout: Maximiliano Romero
68'
🔁Álvaro Madridout: Marcos Bolados
🔁Matías Plazaout: Ignacio Tapia
69'
🔁Franco Ramiout: Ignacio Jeraldino
69'
🔁Jovany Campusanoout: Sebastian Valencia
69'
🔁Lucas Molina Cantoout: Carlos Salomón
76'
Ignacio Jeraldino
82'
Osvaldo Bosso
83'
86'
Jonathan Villagra
H. Muñoz
87'
90+2'
⚽Marcos Boladosassist: Marcelo Correa
90+4'
Marcos Bolados
90+5'
🔁Víctor Méndezout: Javier Méndez
90+6'
🔁Jonathan Villagraout: Iván Román

Match stats — Nublense vs Colo Colo

29%Possession71%
7Shots12
3On target7
1Corners7
0.47xG1.22

Goals against chances

Nublense1 from 0.47 xGmore than the chances were worth
Colo Colo2 from 1.22 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Nublense 4-3-3
  • 1N. PérezG
  • 16D. SanhuezaD
  • 18D. CéspedesD
  • 4O. BossoD
  • 14J. CampusanoD
  • 28M. RiveraM
  • 21L. ReyesM
  • 10M. PlazaM
  • 8G. GracianiF
  • 9F. RamiF
  • 11L. MolinaF
Substitutes
  • 25H. MuñozG
  • 35C. MansillaM
  • 7F. OvelarF
  • 13D. SaavedraM
  • 3C. SalomónD
  • 19I. TapiaM
  • 22A. ValdésM
  • 15S. ValenciaD
  • 20I. JeraldinoF
Coach: Vicente Núñez
Colo Colo 4-3-3
  • 29VózinhaG
  • 28J. RojasD
  • 2J. VillagraD
  • 26D. UlloaD
  • 21É. WiembergD
  • 8Á. MadridM
  • 23A. VidalM
  • 5V. MéndezM
  • 7F. MarchantF
  • 9J. CorreaF
  • 54G DíazF
Substitutes
  • 17I. RománD
  • 6T. AlarcónM
  • 11M. BoladosF
  • 1F. De PaulG
  • 42C. DiazM
  • 13M. FernándezD
  • 20J. MéndezD
  • 10L. PastránF
  • 19M. RomeroF
Coach: F. Ortiz

Form going into Nublense vs Colo Colo

Nublense

Primera División

  • L0-1away to O'Higgins31 October 2026
  • W2-1Coquimbo Unido25 October 2026
  • L0-6away to Universidad de Chile12 October 2026
  • L1-3Everton de Vina12 September 2026

Colo Colo

Primera División

  • W6-1Universidad de Concepcion30 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Palestino25 October 2026
  • L2-5away to Coquimbo Unido11 October 2026
  • D1-1Concepción13 September 2026

What these results say

  • Nublense conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Nublense failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Nublense had three goals or more.
  • Colo Colo scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Colo Colo conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Colo Colo.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Nublense2798103141-1035
1Colo Colo2719445930+2961

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nublense vs Colo Colo

  • 17 May 2026Colo Colo 6–2 NublensePrimera División
  • 1 November 2025Nublense 0–1 Colo ColoPrimera División
  • 19 May 2025Colo Colo 2–2 NublensePrimera División
  • 29 August 2024Colo Colo 2–1 NublensePrimera División
  • 6 April 2024Nublense 3–0 Colo ColoPrimera División
  • 25 July 2023Nublense 0–0 Colo ColoPrimera División

Leading scorers: Nublense and Colo Colo

Nublense

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.

Colo Colo

GoalsAssists

  • J. Correa186
  • M. Romero81
  • L. Hernández74

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Colo Colo won 2–1 at Nublense. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Colo Colo at 50%. The goals: Arturo Vidal 14' for Colo Colo, Lucas Molina Canto 29' for Nublense, Marcos Bolados 90+2' for Colo Colo. On expected goals it finished 0.47–1.22.

How the call on Nublense v Colo Colo has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 28% / 25% / 47% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 26% / 24% / 50%: the biggest move is Colo Colo's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Nublense win26%▼ −2
  2. Draw24%▼ −1
  3. Colo Colo win50%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.