Austin vs Vancouver Whitecaps Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Austin 1-2 Vancouver Whitecaps.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Austin, 25% draw, 49% Vancouver Whitecaps — fair odds of 3.85, 4.00 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Vancouver Whitecaps at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Austin vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. StuverG
- 4B. Hines-IkeD
- 5O. SvatokD
- 15J. BellD
- 30J. RosalesM
- 38Ervin TorresM
- 14B. ŠabovićM
- 17J. GallagherM
- 21C. RamirezF
- 9B. VázquezF
- 10M. UzuniF
- 24Jorge AlastueyM
- 22Chris ApplewhiteD
- 3M. DeslerD
- 35M. ĐorđevićD
- 29Guilherme BiroD
- 12D. LasG
- 77P. PłachetaM
- 6Ilie SánchezM
- 11F. TorresF
- 1Y. TakaokaG
- 18É. OcampoD
- 2M. LabordaD
- 33T. BlackmonD
- 28T. JohnsonD
- 20A. CubasM
- 23A. CvetkovićM
- 11E. SabbiM
- 25R. GauldM
- 14Bruno Steven Caicedo QuiñonezM
- 24B. WhiteF
- 4R. VeselinovićD
- 7C. SabalyF
- 6R. PrisoM
- 70Rui ModestoM
- 8O. LarrazM
- 29M. GherasimencovD
- 19R. ElloumiF
- 77Y. DiabyF
- 32I. BoehmerG
Form going into Austin vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Austin
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Los Angeles FC15 October 2026
- L1-4Nashville SC11 October 2026
- D3-3San Diego27 September 2026
- D0-0away to FC Dallas20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps13 September 2026
Vancouver Whitecaps
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to St. Louis City15 October 2026
- D1-1away to Los Angeles FC11 October 2026
- L1-3away to Chicago Fire7 October 2026
- D3-3DC United27 September 2026
- W3-0away to Real Salt Lake20 September 2026
What these results say
- Austin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Austin | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 42 | 65 | -23 | 34 |
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 74 | 34 | +40 | 64 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Austin vs Vancouver Whitecaps
- 13 September 2026Vancouver Whitecaps 1–2 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 18 May 2025Austin 0–0 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 12 April 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 5–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 1 September 2024Austin 0–1 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 5 May 2024Vancouver Whitecaps 0–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 13 July 2023Vancouver Whitecaps 2–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Austin and Vancouver Whitecaps
Austin
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 42 league goals as a side.
Vancouver Whitecaps
GoalsAssists
- B. White202
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Vancouver Whitecaps won 2–1 at Austin. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Vancouver Whitecaps at 49%. The goals: Myrto Uzuni 40' for Austin, Ryan Gauld 47' for Vancouver Whitecaps, Yadaly Diaby 71' for Vancouver Whitecaps. On expected goals it finished 0.75–0.91.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Austin a 57.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 37.3% after a win, 57.7% after a draw, 66.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.1%, 8.8 points higher than before the match.
For Vancouver Whitecaps the question was the chance to finish top of the Western Conference, 63.7% going in: 74.5% after a win, 57.2% after a draw, 46.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 74.5%, 10.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Austin v Vancouver Whitecaps has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 28% / 28% / 44% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 26% / 25% / 49%: the biggest move is Vancouver Whitecaps's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Austin win26%▼ −2
- Draw25%▼ −3
- Vancouver Whitecaps win49%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.