Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Sporting Kansas City 1-3 Real Salt Lake.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Sporting Kansas City, 25% draw, 38% Real Salt Lake — fair odds of 2.70, 4.00 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Real Salt Lake at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30S. ClevelandG
- 16J. BartlettD
- 15Jansen MillerD
- 28Wyatt MeyerD
- 18E. KarićD
- 11André LuizM
- 20K. AgyabengM
- 22Z. BassongM
- 14C. HarrisM
- 19T. CalheiraF
- 17S. AfrifaF
- 93M. SuleymanovF
- 8J. DavisM
- 7CapitaF
- 23E. BartlowD
- 29S. ReidF
- 2I. JamesD
- 1J. PulskampG
- 24R. RamosF
- 99J. ReidD
- 1Rafael CabralG
- 11D. MarczukD
- 3K. HenryD
- 44L. De FougerollesD
- 26P. QuintonD
- 8J. SanabriaD
- 9M. GuilavoguiM
- 6S. SpieringsM
- 92N. CaliskanM
- 12S. LobzhanidzeM
- 22S. SolansF
- 25Colin GuskeM
- 39A. HezarkhaniF
- 29S. JunquaD
- 98A. KatránisD
- 19A. PiolF
- 31M. StajduharG
- 2D. YedlinD
- 23Chadwick Zachary BoothM
- 28Dušan ŽagarM
Form going into Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake
Sporting Kansas City
All competitions we cover
- L0-4away to Nashville SC15 October 2026
- D3-3Portland Timbers11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Seattle Sounders2 October 2026
- W2-0away to Houston Dynamo27 September 2026
- L3-4Philadelphia Union20 September 2026
Real Salt Lake
All competitions we cover
- D1-1San Jose Earthquakes15 October 2026
- L1-2away to Philadelphia Union10 October 2026
- W3-0New England Revolution27 September 2026
- L0-2away to Seattle Sounders24 September 2026
- L0-3Vancouver Whitecaps20 September 2026
What these results say
- Sporting Kansas City failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Salt Lake failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Salt Lake conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 40 | 81 | -41 | 26 |
| 9 | Real Salt Lake | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 53 | 52 | +1 | 45 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake
- 4 April 2026Real Salt Lake 3–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 14 September 2025Real Salt Lake 2–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 29 June 2025Sporting Kansas City 1–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 20 June 2024Sporting Kansas City 3–4 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 5 May 2024Real Salt Lake 1–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 8 October 2023Real Salt Lake 2–3 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Sporting Kansas City and Real Salt Lake
Sporting Kansas City
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.
Real Salt Lake
GoalsAssists
- S. Solans154
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Real Salt Lake won 3–1 at Sporting Kansas City. The model had made a win for Real Salt Lake its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Morgan Guilavogui 11' for Real Salt Lake, Sergi Solans 14' for Real Salt Lake, Taylor Calheira 26' for Sporting Kansas City, Morgan Guilavogui 61' for Real Salt Lake. On expected goals it finished 0.79–1.05.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Real Salt Lake a 28.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 14.0% after a win, 30.3% after a draw, 41.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.0%, 14.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sporting Kansas City v Real Salt Lake has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 36% / 27% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 37% / 25% / 38%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.
- Sporting Kansas City win37%▲ +1
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Real Salt Lake win38%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.