18 October 2026, 02:30 UTC

Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal Major League Soccer prediction & result

Lumen Field, Seattle
Referee: Fotis Bazakos
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Seattle Sounders 1-1 CF Montreal.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Seattle Sounders, 26% draw, 20% CF Montreal — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Seattle Sounders at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Seattle Sounders5%Draw92%CF Montreal3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
⚽Gennadiy Synchukassist: Noah Streit
Hassani Dotson
14'
33'
Alexis Sanchez
🔁Alexander Roldanout: Sebastian Gomez
45'
🔁Caden Clarkout: Kalani Kossa-Rienzi
45'
52'
Victor Loturi
64'
🔁Jalen Nealout: Dawid Bugaj
🔁Ryan Sailorout: Snyder Brunell
64'
🔁Albert Rusnákout: Jesús Ferreira
64'
⚽Sebastian Gomez
66'
79'
🔁Victor Loturiout: Daniel Pereira
79'
🔁Noah Streitout: Wikelman·Carmona
87'
🔁Fabian Herbersout: Olger Escobar
🔁Hassani Dotsonout: Paul Arriola
87'
87'
🔁Samuel Pietteout: Matthew Longstaff

Match stats — Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal

63%Possession37%
18Shots9
5On target2
5Corners2
1.56xG1.31

Goals against chances

Seattle Sounders1 from 1.56 xGless than the chances were worth
CF Montreal1 from 1.31 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1
  • 26A. ThomasG
  • 16A. RoldanD
  • 28Y. GómezD
  • 4R. SailorD
  • 5N. ToloD
  • 31H. DotsonM
  • 7C. RoldanM
  • 8C. ClarkM
  • 11A. RusnákM
  • 13J. MorrisM
  • 9D. JoveljićF
Substitutes
  • 19D. MusovskiF
  • 17P. ArriolaF
  • 37S. BrunellM
  • 27J. FerreiraF
  • 24S. FreiG
  • 90S. GomezM
  • 45P. KingstonM
  • 85K. Kossa-RienziM
  • 35Antino LopezD
Coach: B. Schmetzer
CF Montreal 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. BrezaG
  • 2J. NealD
  • 24E. MoralesD
  • 5B. CraigD
  • 28V. RadojevićD
  • 6S. PietteM
  • 22V. LoturiM
  • 18H. SynchukM
  • 21F. HerbersM
  • 23N. StreitM
  • 10A. SánchezF
Substitutes
  • 7D. PereiraM
  • 13L. PetrassoD
  • 14D. RíosF
  • 8M. LongstaffM
  • 41S. KeitaG
  • 29O. EscobarF
  • 16W. CarmonaM
  • 27D. BugajD
Coach: Philippe Eullaffroy

Form going into Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal

Seattle Sounders

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to FC Dallas15 October 2026
  • W3-0away to New England Revolution10 October 2026
  • W2-1Sporting Kansas City2 October 2026
  • W3-1Minnesota United FC27 September 2026
  • W2-0Real Salt Lake24 September 2026

CF Montreal

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3Atlanta United FC14 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Toronto FC10 October 2026
  • W3-1FC Cincinnati26 September 2026
  • L0-2Columbus Crew19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Colorado Rapids13 September 2026

What these results say

  • Seattle Sounders won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Seattle Sounders scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • CF Montreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • CF Montreal failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Seattle Sounders341210124446-246
15CF Montreal3468203769-3226

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal

  • 7 April 2024Seattle Sounders 5–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
  • 30 June 2022Seattle Sounders 1–2 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
  • 5 June 2019CF Montreal 2–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
  • 1 April 2018Seattle Sounders 0–1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
  • 12 March 2017CF Montreal 2–2 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
  • 3 April 2016Seattle Sounders 1–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Seattle Sounders and CF Montreal

Seattle Sounders

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.

CF Montreal

GoalsAssists

  • P. Owusu156

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Seattle Sounders and CF Montreal drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Seattle Sounders at 54% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Gennadiy Synchuk 13' for CF Montreal, Sebastian Gomez 66' for Seattle Sounders. On expected goals it finished 1.56–1.31.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Seattle Sounders a 3.7% chance to finish in the top four: 5.3% after a win, 2.0% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 2.0%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Seattle Sounders v CF Montreal has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 54% / 26% / 20%: the biggest move is Seattle Sounders's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Seattle Sounders win54%▲ +8
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. CF Montreal win20%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.