Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Houston Dynamo 2-2 FC Dallas.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Houston Dynamo, 28% draw, 32% FC Dallas — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Houston Dynamo at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31J. BondG
- 11L. EnnaliD
- 5Lucas HalterD
- 34A. ReschD
- 21F. NegriD
- 18D. SamassékouM
- 6ArturM
- 16H. HerreraM
- 19M. BoguszF
- 9L. FosterF
- 20GuilhermeF
- 17N. MarkanichF
- 14D. HolmesM
- 26B. GillinghamG
- 30A. BouzatM
- 22M. AranaM
- 3Antônio CarlosD
- 24A. IbrahimF
- 23D. McGuireF
- 4M. SaracchiD
- 42DanielG
- 18S. MooreD
- 25S. IbeaghaD
- 32N. NorrisD
- 14H. JohanssonM
- 17RamiroM
- 12C. CappisM
- 77B. KamungoM
- 8P. DelgadoM
- 7D. JobM
- 9P. MusaF
- 21J. ValienteM
- 5L. AbubakarD
- 6R. BinyaminM
- 33C. HolstadM
- 10S. MorenoF
- 28Samuel SarverF
- 40J. SiroisG
- 27Caleb SwannM
- 3O. UrhoghideD
Form going into Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas
Houston Dynamo
All competitions we cover
- D3-3away to San Diego15 October 2026
- D2-2away to Minnesota United FC11 October 2026
- L0-2Sporting Kansas City27 September 2026
- D2-2FC Cincinnati20 September 2026
- L0-1away to San Jose Earthquakes13 September 2026
FC Dallas
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Seattle Sounders15 October 2026
- L2-3away to Charlotte10 October 2026
- W1-0Los Angeles FC27 September 2026
- D0-0Austin20 September 2026
- W2-1Portland Timbers13 September 2026
What these results say
- Houston Dynamo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Dallas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 43 | 43 | 0 | 51 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 62 | 51 | +11 | 58 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas
- 22 March 2026FC Dallas 4–3 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 11 February 2026FC Dallas 1–2 Houston DynamoFriendlies Clubs
- 18 May 2025FC Dallas 0–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 23 February 2025Houston Dynamo 1–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 7 February 2025FC Dallas 2–2 Houston DynamoFriendlies Clubs
- 19 May 2024Houston Dynamo 1–1 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Houston Dynamo and FC Dallas
Houston Dynamo
GoalsAssists
- Guilherme168
FC Dallas
GoalsAssists
- P. Musa225
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Houston Dynamo and FC Dallas drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Houston Dynamo at 40% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Christian Cappis 12' for FC Dallas, Héctor Herrera 49' for Houston Dynamo, Mateusz Bogusz (penalty) 90+4' for Houston Dynamo, Petar Musa (penalty) 90+11' for FC Dallas. Sent off: Samuel Sarver (FC Dallas) 90+12'. On expected goals it finished 1.38–2.50.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Houston Dynamo a 37.4% chance to finish in the top four: 53.0% after a win, 28.9% after a draw, 19.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 28.9%, 8.5 points lower than before the match.
For FC Dallas the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 87.5% going in: 97.8% after a win, 89.9% after a draw, 80.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 89.9%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Houston Dynamo v FC Dallas has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 38% / 30% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 40% / 28% / 32%: the biggest move is Houston Dynamo's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Houston Dynamo win40%▲ +2
- Draw28%▼ −2
- FC Dallas win32%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.