18 October 2026, 02:30 UTC

Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego Major League Soccer prediction & result

Dignity Health Sports Park, Los Angeles
Referee: Rubiel Vazquez
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Los Angeles Galaxy 2-2 San Diego.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Los Angeles Galaxy, 25% draw, 34% San Diego — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Los Angeles Galaxy at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Los Angeles Galaxy5%Draw90%San Diego5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Klaussassist: Sergi Roberto
4'
10'
⚽Anders Dreyer (pen)
•Klauss
14'
⚽Erik Thommyassist: Harbor Miller
17'
35'
Aníbal Godoy
39'
⚽Gabriel Pirani
Klauss
45+1'
🔁Robert Taylorout: Joseph Paintsil
66'
🔁Carlos Emiro Garces Torresout: Jakob Glesnes
66'
66'
🔁Alejandro Alvarado Jrout: Jeppe Tverskov
66'
🔁Cédric Bakambuout: Marcus Ingvartsen
🔁Sergi Robertoout: Lucas Agustin·Sanabria Magole
73'
78'
🔁Gabriel Piraniout: Onni Valakari
🔁Harbor Millerout: Lucas Felipe·Calegari
81'
83'
🔁kieran sargeantout: Dagur Dan Þórhallsson
83'
🔁Elias Achouriout: Amahl Pellegrino
Marco Reus
90+3'

Match stats — Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego

31%Possession69%
12Shots14
9On target5
5Corners3
0.55xG2.07

Goals against chances

Los Angeles Galaxy2 from 0.55 xGmore than the chances were worth
San Diego2 from 2.07 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Los Angeles Galaxy 4-2-3-1
  • 12J. MarcinkowskiG
  • 26Harbor MillerD
  • 25C. GarcésD
  • 15J. HaakD
  • 14J. NelsonD
  • 17P. RuizM
  • 6Sergi RobertoM
  • 21R. TaylorM
  • 18M. ReusM
  • 27E. ThommyM
  • 99KlaussF
Substitutes
  • 3J. AudeD
  • 2CalegariD
  • 76T. ElgersmaM
  • 5J. GlesnesD
  • 1N. MićovićG
  • 28J. PaintsilF
  • 8L. SanabriaM
  • 22E. WynderM
  • 4M. YoshidaD
Coach: Greg Vanney
San Diego 4-3-3
  • 13P. SisniegaG
  • 33O. VerhoevenD
  • 97C. McVeyD
  • 26M. DuahD
  • 5Kieran SargeantD
  • 70A. AlvaradoM
  • 20A. GodoyM
  • 12Gabriel PiraniM
  • 10A. DreyerF
  • 94C. BakambuF
  • 99E. AchouriF
Substitutes
  • 7M. IngvartsenF
  • 90A. PellegrinoF
  • 1C. dos SantosG
  • 36David MimbangM
  • 25I. PilcherD
  • 8O. ValakariM
  • 6J. TverskovM
  • 14B. B. ZambleF
  • 3D. Þór­halls­sonD
Coach: Mikey Varas

Form going into Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego

Los Angeles Galaxy

Major League Soccer

  • W2-0Portland Timbers15 October 2026

San Diego

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3Houston Dynamo15 October 2026
  • L1-4away to New York Red Bulls10 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Austin27 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Inter Miami20 September 2026
  • L0-5Philadelphia Union14 September 2026

What these results say

  • San Diego did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • San Diego conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for San Diego had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Los Angeles Galaxy341111125057-744
13San Diego34911145763-638

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego

  • 30 August 2026San Diego 3–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
  • 24 May 2025San Diego 2–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
  • 24 February 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 0–2 San DiegoMajor League Soccer

The result against the call

Los Angeles Galaxy and San Diego drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Los Angeles Galaxy at 41% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Klauss 4' for Los Angeles Galaxy, Anders Dreyer (penalty) 10' for San Diego, Erik Thommy 17' for Los Angeles Galaxy, Gabriel Pirani 39' for San Diego. On expected goals it finished 0.55–2.07.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Los Angeles Galaxy a 2.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 0.0% after a win, 1.0% after a draw, 5.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 1.0%, 1.3 points lower than before the match.

For San Diego the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 27.0% going in: 10.8% after a win, 25.4% after a draw, 39.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 25.4%, 1.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Los Angeles Galaxy v San Diego has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 38% / 27% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 41% / 25% / 34%: the biggest move is Los Angeles Galaxy's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Los Angeles Galaxy win41%▲ +3
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. San Diego win34%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.