Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Austria Lustenau 2-1 Wolfsberger AC.
Before kick-off the model made it 21% Austria Lustenau, 23% draw, 56% Wolfsberger AC — fair odds of 4.76, 4.35 and 1.79. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wolfsberger AC at 56% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 27Domenik SchierlG
- 7Fabian GmeinerD
- 15Chukwu EmmanuelD
- 29Niklas PertlwieserD
- 3Danilo SoaresD
- 8Dion KacuriM
- 11Dominik WeixelbraunM
- 20Lord AfrifaM
- 24Seydou DiarraM
- 17Albin GashiM
- 39Antonio VerinacF
- 26Lukas IbertsbergerD
- 19Sacha DelayeM
- 30Phillip BohmG
- 31Matthias MaakD
- 18Robin VoisineD
- 23Pius GrabherM
- 61Haris IsmailcebiogluM
- 9Lenn JastremskiF
- 14Precious BenjaminF
- 1Lukas GütlbauerG
- 6Raffael BehounekD
- 15Cheick Mamadou DiabateD
- 37Nicolas WimmerD
- 31Fabian WohlmuthM
- 30Marco SulznerM
- 19Otar MamageishviliM
- 11Aaron Sky SchwarzM
- 17Marco SchabauerF
- 10Donis AvdijajF
- 9Giacomo VrioniF
- 35Matteo KitzD
- 77René RennerD
- 23Phillip VerhounigF
- 49Sankara KaramokoF
- 21David SkublG
- 20Thorsten SchrieblM
- 8Simon PiesingerM
- 34Emmanuel AgyemangM
- 32Markus PinkF
Form going into Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC
Austria Lustenau
- L1-2away to Grazer AK8 August 2026
Wolfsberger AC
- D1-1Red Bull Salzburg9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Austria Lustenau | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 |
| 9 | Wolfsberger AC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC
- 15 August 2026Austria Lustenau 2–1 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
- 23 April 2024Austria Lustenau 1–2 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
- 20 April 2024Wolfsberger AC 1–1 Austria LustenauBundesliga
- 11 November 2023Austria Lustenau 2–3 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
- 12 August 2023Wolfsberger AC 1–1 Austria LustenauBundesliga
- 5 June 2023Wolfsberger AC 1–2 Austria LustenauBundesliga
Leading scorers: Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC
Austria Lustenau
- D. Weixelbraun3 goals1 assists
- A. Verinac2 goals1 assists
Wolfsberger AC
- G. Vrioni4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.