15 August 2026, 17:45 UTC

FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat Premier League prediction & result

Ozon Arena, Krasnodar
Full time1 – 0

Final score: FC Krasnodar 1-0 Akhmat.

Before kick-off the model made it 61% FC Krasnodar, 22% draw, 17% Akhmat — fair odds of 1.64, 4.55 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Krasnodar at 61% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Krasnodar97%Draw3%Akhmat0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
Miroslav Bogosavac
⚽Christianassist: D. Vorobyev
45'
46'
🔁M. Bogosavacout: M. Sidorov
58'
🔁E. Maksutiout: G. Melkadze
64'
Lechii Sadulaev
🔁K. Leniniout: M. Ozdoev
71'
🔁D. Vorobyevout: D. Utkin
76'
🔁Joao Batxiout: J. Boselli
76'
76'
🔁I. Silvaout: K. Shchetinin
77'
🔁M. Samorodovout: G. Kenzhebek
81'
Maksim Sidorov
🔁L. Olazaout: A. Khmarin
82'
84'
🔁A. Adamovout: A. Kasadzhikov
Jubal
90+4'
90+3'
Georgiy Melkadze

Match stats — FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat

60%Possession40%
16Shots8
3On target0
3Corners4

Line-ups

FC Krasnodar 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. AgkatsevG
  • 40I. VakhaniaD
  • 3V. TormenaD
  • 5Jubal JuniorD
  • 15L. OlazaD
  • 53A. ChernikovM
  • 6K. LeniniM
  • 18ChristianM
  • 88N. KrivtsovM
  • 11Joao BatxiM
  • 10D. VorobyevF
Substitutes
  • 16A. KoryakinG
  • 4Diego CostaD
  • 17V. PaltsevD
  • 59A. KhmarinD
  • 21M. OzdoevM
  • 47D. UtkinM
  • 23J. BoselliF
  • 67K. MukailovF
Coach: Murad Musaev
Akhmat 5-4-1
  • 1V. UlyanovG
  • 95A. AdamovD
  • 4T. IbishevD
  • 90O. NdongD
  • 5K. CakeD
  • 8M. BogosavacD
  • 20M. SamorodovM
  • 18J. RomaoM
  • 11I. SilvaM
  • 7L. SadulaevM
  • 76E. MaksutiF
Substitutes
  • 88G. SheliaG
  • 71R. MitsaevG
  • 81M. SidorovD
  • 10K. ShchetininM
  • 6K. SidibeM
  • 42M. KelianoM
  • 70A. GadzhievM
  • 13M. KonateF
  • 23G. KenzhebekM
Coach: Stanislav Cherchesov

Form going into FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat

FC Krasnodar

  • W2-1away to Spartak Moscow9 August 2026

Akhmat

  • D0-0away to Fakel10 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1FC Krasnodar8620147+720
10Akhmat82421311+210

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat

  • 15 August 2026FC Krasnodar 1–0 AkhmatPremier League
  • 5 August 2026FC Krasnodar 1–1 AkhmatCup
  • 4 April 2026Akhmat 0–1 FC KrasnodarPremier League
  • 4 October 2025FC Krasnodar 2–0 AkhmatPremier League
  • 19 April 2025FC Krasnodar 3–1 AkhmatPremier League
  • 11 March 2025FC Krasnodar 1–2 AkhmatCup

Leading scorers: FC Krasnodar and Akhmat

FC Krasnodar

  • N. Krivtsov3 goals1 assists
  • Jubal3 goals
  • Christian2 goals2 assists

Akhmat

  • Egas Cacintura3 goals1 assists
  • G. Melkadze3 goals
  • L. Sadulaev2 goals3 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.