Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Sturm Graz 1-0 SCR Altach.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Sturm Graz, 20% draw, 21% SCR Altach — fair odds of 1.69, 5.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sturm Graz at 59% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 53Daniil KhudyakovG
- 28Jurgen HeilD
- 21Petar PetrovićD
- 5Albert VallciD
- 18Emran SogloD
- 43Jacob HödlM
- 39Luca WeinhandlM
- 4Jon Gorenc StankovićM
- 19Simon SeidlM
- 11Axel KayomboF
- 44Nelson WeiperF
- 20Seedy JattaF
- 17Szymon WłodarczykF
- 23Arjan MalićD
- 27Luís BalboD
- 15Gizo MamageishviliM
- 22Ammar HelacG
- 30Paul KollerD
- 40Julian HalwachsM
- 26Belmin BeganovićF
- 1Dejan StojanovićG
- 27Filip MilojevicD
- 23Benedikt ZechD
- 17Lukas JägerD
- 29Niklas NiehoffM
- 6Vesel DemakuM
- 8Mike-Steven BähreM
- 37Benjamin BöckleM
- 19Srđan HrstićF
- 10Ousmane DiawaraF
- 18Patrick GreilF
- 9Marko RagužF
- 20Erkin YalcinF
- 21Jakob BrandtnerD
- 22Yanis EisschillM
- 7Denizcan CosgunM
- 31Daniel AntoschG
- 4Henrique BellD
- 16Rassa RahmaniD
- 24Salif TietiettaM
Form going into Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach
Sturm Graz
- W2-0away to TSV Hartberg8 August 2026
SCR Altach
- W3-1WSG Wattens7 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 |
| 12 | SCR Altach | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach
- 15 August 2026Sturm Graz 1–0 SCR AltachBundesliga
- 8 March 2026Sturm Graz 2–0 SCR AltachBundesliga
- 1 February 2026SCR Altach 3–1 Sturm GrazCup
- 5 October 2025SCR Altach 0–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 30 November 2024SCR Altach 1–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 24 August 2024Sturm Graz 2–1 SCR AltachBundesliga
Leading scorers: Sturm Graz and SCR Altach
Sturm Graz
- N. Weiper2 goals
SCR Altach
- Y. Massombo2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.