Auxerre vs Angers Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Auxerre 1-3 Angers.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Auxerre, 25% draw, 30% Angers — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Auxerre at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Auxerre vs Angers
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23M. DiopG
- 27L. SyD
- 20S. DiomandeD
- 35E. LegrosD
- 92C. AkpaD
- 8N. AhamadaM
- 46A. PiedfortM
- 5K. DanoisM
- 21R. FaivreF
- 10D. NamasoF
- 3R. Labeau LascaryF
- 1P. NardiG
- 22F. OppegardD
- 13T. SiweD
- 17P. EkwahM
- 34L. DioubateM
- 14T. BairF
- 7J. CasimirF
- 32R. Mandengue
- 77A. ZossouM
- 1A. LopesG
- 2C. ArcusD
- 4O. CamaraD
- 21J. LefortD
- 17J. KaluluD
- 14Y. BelkhdimM
- 8B. van den BoomenM
- 18J. AllevinahM
- 10A. SbaiM
- 26A. BermontM
- 19A. El OuazzaniF
- 40O. PonaG
- 24E. BiumlaM
- 20M. LouerD
- 34M. GernigonD
- 37J. BouffandeauM
- 36B. DiattaM
- 7U. SimbakoliF
- 9P. PeterF
- 11H. DjibirinF
Form going into Auxerre vs Angers
Auxerre
All competitions we cover
- L2-5away to Lens22 August 2026
Angers
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Lille23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Auxerre | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 10 |
| 16 | Angers | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Auxerre vs Angers
- 3 May 2026Auxerre 3–1 AngersLigue 1
- 9 November 2025Angers 2–0 AuxerreLigue 1
- 19 January 2025Angers 2–0 AuxerreLigue 1
- 24 November 2024Auxerre 1–0 AngersLigue 1
- 10 February 2024Auxerre 1–0 AngersLigue 2
Leading scorers: Auxerre and Angers
Auxerre
GoalsAssists
- C. Archer60
Angers
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Angers won 3–1 at Auxerre. The model had leaned towards a win for Auxerre at 45% and given a win for Angers 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: B. van den Boomen 5' for Angers, R. Labeau Lascary 35' for Auxerre, H. Djibirin 70' for Angers, A. El Ouazzani 78' for Angers. On expected goals it finished 1.29–1.64.