29 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Auxerre vs Angers Ligue 1 prediction & result

Auxerre
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Auxerre 1-3 Angers.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Auxerre, 25% draw, 30% Angers — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Auxerre at 45% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Auxerre0%Draw1%Angers99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽B. van den Boomen
28'
Branco Van den Boomen
⚽R. Labeau Lascaryassist: R. Faivre
35'
Elikya Legros
50'
🔁R. Labeau Lascaryout: F. Oppegard
61'
🔁E. Legrosout: A. Zossou
62'
67'
🔁J. Allevinahout: P. Peter
68'
🔁A. Bermontout: H. Djibirin
70'
⚽H. Djibirinassist: A. El Ouazzani
🔁D. Namasoout: T. Bair
71'
🔁R. Faivreout: J. Casimir
71'
78'
⚽A. El Ouazzaniassist: O. Camara
🔁A. Piedfortout: L. Dioubate
80'
81'
🔁A. Sbaiout: U. Simbakoli
87'
🔁C. Arcusout: M. Louer
88'
🔁A. El Ouazzaniout: B. Diatta
Sinaly Diomandé
90+4'
Clement Akpa
90+3'
90+3'
Prosper Peter

Match stats — Auxerre vs Angers

60%Possession40%
19Shots15
7On target6
7Corners10
1.29xG1.64

Goals against chances

Auxerre1 from 1.29 xGabout what the chances were worth
Angers3 from 1.64 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Auxerre 4-3-3
  • 23M. DiopG
  • 27L. SyD
  • 20S. DiomandeD
  • 35E. LegrosD
  • 92C. AkpaD
  • 8N. AhamadaM
  • 46A. PiedfortM
  • 5K. DanoisM
  • 21R. FaivreF
  • 10D. NamasoF
  • 3R. Labeau LascaryF
Substitutes
  • 1P. NardiG
  • 22F. OppegardD
  • 13T. SiweD
  • 17P. EkwahM
  • 34L. DioubateM
  • 14T. BairF
  • 7J. CasimirF
  • 32R. Mandengue
  • 77A. ZossouM
Coach: Christophe Pelissier
Angers 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. LopesG
  • 2C. ArcusD
  • 4O. CamaraD
  • 21J. LefortD
  • 17J. KaluluD
  • 14Y. BelkhdimM
  • 8B. van den BoomenM
  • 18J. AllevinahM
  • 10A. SbaiM
  • 26A. BermontM
  • 19A. El OuazzaniF
Substitutes
  • 40O. PonaG
  • 24E. BiumlaM
  • 20M. LouerD
  • 34M. GernigonD
  • 37J. BouffandeauM
  • 36B. DiattaM
  • 7U. SimbakoliF
  • 9P. PeterF
  • 11H. DjibirinF
Coach: Stephane Gilli

Form going into Auxerre vs Angers

Auxerre

  • L2-5away to Lens22 August 2026

Angers

  • L0-2Lille23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Auxerre4103511-63
11Angers411245-14

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Auxerre vs Angers

  • 29 August 2026Auxerre 1–3 AngersLigue 1
  • 3 May 2026Auxerre 3–1 AngersLigue 1
  • 9 November 2025Angers 2–0 AuxerreLigue 1
  • 19 January 2025Angers 2–0 AuxerreLigue 1
  • 24 November 2024Auxerre 1–0 AngersLigue 1
  • 10 February 2024Auxerre 1–0 AngersLigue 2

Leading scorers: Auxerre and Angers

Auxerre

  • C. Archer2 goals

Angers

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.