29 August 2026, 15:15 UTC

Strasbourg vs Lens Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Strasbourg 2-1 Lens.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Strasbourg, 26% draw, 42% Lens — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lens at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Strasbourg95%Draw5%Lens0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jeyland Mitchell
36'
38'
⚽F. Thauvin (pen)
⚽G. Yassineassist: S. Nanasi
48'
•Jacobo Ortega
56'
62'
🔁M. Nawrockiout: R. Aguilar
69'
Franjo Ivanović
72'
🔁M. Cuisanceout: A. Bulatovic
73'
🔁F. Ivanovicout: T. Hazard
🔁G. Reynaout: S. Amo-Ameyaw
76'
80'
Ruben Aguilar
🔁L. Hogsbergout: K. Coulibaly
83'
🔁J. Ortegaout: S. Mara
83'
Gessime Yassine
84'
⚽G. Yassineassist: S. Nanasi
85'
89'
🔁M. Skorasout: M. Soares
89'
🔁A. Simaout: F. Sotoca
🔁S. Nanasiout: M. Del Blanco
90'
🔁G. Yassineout: F. Balde
90'

Match stats — Strasbourg vs Lens

52%Possession48%
16Shots17
7On target7
3Corners6
1.66xG2.89

Goals against chances

Strasbourg2 from 1.66 xGabout what the chances were worth
Lens1 from 2.89 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Strasbourg 4-3-3
  • 1F. JorgensenG
  • 16G. AntwiD
  • 4J. MitchellD
  • 2A. OmobamideleD
  • 24L. HogsbergD
  • 23D. SousaM
  • 21P. DembaM
  • 10G. ReynaM
  • 80G. YassineF
  • 30J. OrtegaF
  • 11S. NanasiF
Substitutes
  • 12M. PiekutowskiG
  • 31K. CoulibalyD
  • 17M. AmougouM
  • 7S. Amo-AmeyawF
  • 15M. Del BlancoD
  • 45B. BrantlindM
  • 28T. NoubissieM
  • 19F. BaldeF
  • 14S. MaraF
Coach: Hugo Oliveira
Lens 3-4-2-1
  • 40R. RisserG
  • 3M. NawrockiD
  • 25I. GaniouD
  • 31S. SagnanD
  • 22M. SkorasM
  • 8Y. TitraouiM
  • 27M. CuisanceM
  • 14M. UdolM
  • 10F. ThauvinF
  • 29F. IvanovicF
  • 19A. SimaF
Substitutes
  • 16M. GorgelinG
  • 4N. CelikD
  • 2R. AguilarD
  • 9T. HazardM
  • 21A. HaidaraM
  • 5A. BulatovicM
  • 38M. Soares
  • 7F. SotocaF
  • 18R. FofanaF
Coach: Dino Toppmoller

Form going into Strasbourg vs Lens

Strasbourg

  • L0-4away to Marseille21 August 2026

Lens

  • W5-2Auxerre22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Strasbourg421198+17
10Lens411287+14

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Strasbourg vs Lens

  • 29 August 2026Strasbourg 2–1 LensLigue 1
  • 27 February 2026Strasbourg 1–1 LensLigue 1
  • 22 November 2025Lens 1–0 StrasbourgLigue 1
  • 16 February 2025Lens 0–2 StrasbourgLigue 1
  • 6 October 2024Strasbourg 2–2 LensLigue 1
  • 10 February 2024Lens 3–1 StrasbourgLigue 1

Leading scorers: Strasbourg and Lens

Strasbourg

  • Gessime Yassine2 goals1 assists
  • S. Amo-Ameyaw2 goals
  • J. Ortega1 goals1 assists

Lens

  • F. Thauvin3 goals1 assists
  • F. Ivanović2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.