29 August 2026, 15:15 UTC

Strasbourg vs Lens Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Strasbourg 2-1 Lens.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Strasbourg, 26% draw, 42% Lens — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lens at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Strasbourg95%Draw5%Lens0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jeyland Mitchell
36'
38'
⚽F. Thauvin (pen)
⚽G. Yassineassist: S. Nanasi
48'
•Jacobo Ortega
56'
62'
🔁M. Nawrockiout: R. Aguilar
69'
Franjo Ivanović
72'
🔁M. Cuisanceout: A. Bulatovic
73'
🔁F. Ivanovicout: T. Hazard
🔁G. Reynaout: S. Amo-Ameyaw
76'
80'
Ruben Aguilar
🔁L. Hogsbergout: K. Coulibaly
83'
🔁J. Ortegaout: S. Mara
83'
Gessime Yassine
84'
⚽G. Yassineassist: S. Nanasi
85'
89'
🔁M. Skorasout: M. Soares
89'
🔁A. Simaout: F. Sotoca
🔁S. Nanasiout: M. Del Blanco
90'
🔁G. Yassineout: F. Balde
90'

Match stats — Strasbourg vs Lens

52%Possession48%
16Shots17
7On target7
3Corners6
1.66xG2.89

Goals against chances

Strasbourg2 from 1.66 xGabout what the chances were worth
Lens1 from 2.89 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Strasbourg 4-3-3
  • 1F. JorgensenG
  • 16G. AntwiD
  • 4J. MitchellD
  • 2A. OmobamideleD
  • 24L. HogsbergD
  • 23D. SousaM
  • 21P. DembaM
  • 10G. ReynaM
  • 80G. YassineF
  • 30J. OrtegaF
  • 11S. NanasiF
Substitutes
  • 12M. PiekutowskiG
  • 31K. CoulibalyD
  • 17M. AmougouM
  • 7S. Amo-AmeyawF
  • 15M. Del BlancoD
  • 45B. BrantlindM
  • 28T. NoubissieM
  • 19F. BaldeF
  • 14S. MaraF
Coach: Hugo Oliveira
Lens 3-4-2-1
  • 40R. RisserG
  • 3M. NawrockiD
  • 25I. GaniouD
  • 31S. SagnanD
  • 22M. SkorasM
  • 8Y. TitraouiM
  • 27M. CuisanceM
  • 14M. UdolM
  • 10F. ThauvinF
  • 29F. IvanovicF
  • 19A. SimaF
Substitutes
  • 16M. GorgelinG
  • 4N. CelikD
  • 2R. AguilarD
  • 9T. HazardM
  • 21A. HaidaraM
  • 5A. BulatovicM
  • 38M. Soares
  • 7F. SotocaF
  • 18R. FofanaF
Coach: Dino Toppmoller

Form going into Strasbourg vs Lens

Strasbourg

All competitions we cover

  • L0-4away to Marseille21 August 2026

Lens

All competitions we cover

  • W5-2Auxerre22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Strasbourg103161822-410
11Lens104151715+213

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Strasbourg vs Lens

  • 27 February 2026Strasbourg 1–1 LensLigue 1
  • 22 November 2025Lens 1–0 StrasbourgLigue 1
  • 16 February 2025Lens 0–2 StrasbourgLigue 1
  • 6 October 2024Strasbourg 2–2 LensLigue 1
  • 10 February 2024Lens 3–1 StrasbourgLigue 1

The full Strasbourg vs Lens record →

Leading scorers: Strasbourg and Lens

Strasbourg

GoalsAssists

  • Gessime Yassine43

Lens

GoalsAssists

  • F. Thauvin57

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Strasbourg beat Lens 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Lens at 42% and given a win for Strasbourg 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: F. Thauvin (penalty) 38' for Lens, G. Yassine 48' for Strasbourg, G. Yassine 85' for Strasbourg. On expected goals it finished 1.66–2.89.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.