Lyon vs Le Havre Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Lyon 1-1 Le Havre.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Lyon, 24% draw, 22% Le Havre — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Lyon at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lyon vs Le Havre
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1D. GreifG
- 13Z. AthekameD
- 20F. BacherD
- 19M. NiakhateD
- 3N. TagliaficoD
- 2M. BidstrupM
- 23T. MortonM
- 7E. NuamahM
- 8C. TolissoM
- 26K. BoudacheM
- 17L. OpendaF
- 40R. DescampsG
- 22C. MataD
- 98A. Maitland-NilesM
- 16Abner ViniciusD
- 6T. TessmannM
- 18K. MerahM
- 10P. SulcM
- 99N. NarteyM
- 11M. FofanaF
- 77L. Mpasi-NzauG
- 15A. SekoD
- 6J. MwangaD
- 5A. ToubaD
- 33D. Ouziad
- 26S. EbonogM
- 7A. RichardsonM
- 32T. PembeleM
- 14R. NdiayeF
- 17K. MizutaF
- 25A. SamattaF
- 93G. GallonG
- 13F. DoucoureD
- 12E. JelertD
- 23V. SassoD
- 44I. BounebM
- 78D. N. MosengoM
- 30S. NakamuraF
- 9J. MajaF
- 27E. K. VinetteF
Form going into Lyon vs Le Havre
Lyon
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Fenerbahçe26 August 2026
- W2-0away to Toulouse22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Fenerbahçe18 August 2026
- W3-0Sparta Praha11 August 2026
- L1-2away to Sparta Praha4 August 2026
Le Havre
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Monaco23 August 2026
What these results say
- Lyon scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lyon | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 17 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lyon vs Le Havre
- 15 March 2026Le Havre 0–0 LyonLigue 1
- 14 December 2025Lyon 1–0 Le HavreLigue 1
- 16 March 2025Lyon 4–2 Le HavreLigue 1
- 20 October 2024Le Havre 0–4 LyonLigue 1
- 14 January 2024Le Havre 3–1 LyonLigue 1
Leading scorers: Lyon and Le Havre
Lyon
GoalsAssists
- E. Nuamah41
Le Havre
GoalsAssists
- J. Maja40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lyon and Le Havre drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Lyon at 54% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Samatta 74' for Le Havre, L. Openda 87' for Lyon. On expected goals it finished 1.70–0.66.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.