29 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Lyon vs Le Havre Ligue 1 prediction & result

Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Lyon 1-1 Le Havre.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Lyon, 24% draw, 22% Le Havre — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lyon at 54% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lyon5%Draw92%Le Havre3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

41'
Ayumu Seko
🔁K. Boudacheout: M. Fofana
61'
🔁M. Bidstrupout: N. Nartey
62'
65'
🔁D. Ouziadout: F. Doucoure
65'
🔁K. Mizutaout: J. Maja
•Corentin Tolisso
67'
74'
⚽A. Samattaassist: F. Doucoure
76'
🔁S. Ebonogout: S. Nakamura
76'
🔁T. Pembeleout: E. K. Vinette
🔁N. Tagliaficoout: Abner Vinicius
80'
🔁E. Nuamahout: P. Sulc
80'
⚽L. Opendaassist: Z. Athekame
87'
90+6'
Fodé Doucouré
90+4'
•Sota Nakamura
90+1'
🔁A. Samattaout: V. Sasso

Match stats — Lyon vs Le Havre

57%Possession43%
15Shots12
5On target4
5Corners5
1.7xG0.66

Goals against chances

Lyon1 from 1.70 xGless than the chances were worth
Le Havre1 from 0.66 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lyon 4-2-3-1
  • 1D. GreifG
  • 13Z. AthekameD
  • 20F. BacherD
  • 19M. NiakhateD
  • 3N. TagliaficoD
  • 2M. BidstrupM
  • 23T. MortonM
  • 7E. NuamahM
  • 8C. TolissoM
  • 26K. BoudacheM
  • 17L. OpendaF
Substitutes
  • 40R. DescampsG
  • 22C. MataD
  • 98A. Maitland-NilesM
  • 16Abner ViniciusD
  • 6T. TessmannM
  • 18K. MerahM
  • 10P. SulcM
  • 99N. NarteyM
  • 11M. FofanaF
Coach: Paulo Fonseca
Le Havre 3-4-2-1
  • 77L. Mpasi-NzauG
  • 15A. SekoD
  • 6J. MwangaD
  • 5A. ToubaD
  • 33D. Ouziad
  • 26S. EbonogM
  • 7A. RichardsonM
  • 32T. PembeleM
  • 14R. NdiayeF
  • 17K. MizutaF
  • 25A. SamattaF
Substitutes
  • 93G. GallonG
  • 13F. DoucoureD
  • 12E. JelertD
  • 23V. SassoD
  • 44I. BounebM
  • 78D. N. MosengoM
  • 30S. NakamuraF
  • 9J. MajaF
  • 27E. K. VinetteF
Coach: Didier Digard

Form going into Lyon vs Le Havre

Lyon

  • W2-0away to Toulouse22 August 2026

Le Havre

  • L0-1Monaco23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Lyon422062+48
16Le Havre402224-22

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lyon vs Le Havre

  • 29 August 2026Lyon 1–1 Le HavreLigue 1
  • 15 March 2026Le Havre 0–0 LyonLigue 1
  • 14 December 2025Lyon 1–0 Le HavreLigue 1
  • 16 March 2025Lyon 4–2 Le HavreLigue 1
  • 20 October 2024Le Havre 0–4 LyonLigue 1
  • 14 January 2024Le Havre 3–1 LyonLigue 1
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.