29 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Lorient vs Estac Troyes Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade du Moustoir, Lorient
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Lorient 1-2 Estac Troyes.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Lorient, 29% draw, 26% Estac Troyes — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lorient at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lorient0%Draw4%Estac Troyes96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
•Antoine Mille
29'
⚽R. Ripart (pen)
38'
⚽L. Maronnierassist: A. Mille
⚽J. Makengo
51'
🔁M. Koneout: A. Tosin
66'
🔁G. Bernardeauout: I. Jensen
66'
67'
🔁H. Picardout: K. Diawara
🔁J. Makengoout: P. Katseris
73'
🔁T. Le Brisout: S. Faye
73'
78'
🔁A. Milleout: D. Karim
🔁N. Cadiouout: N. Mbamba
84'
85'
🔁I. Gomisout: A. Phliponeau
86'
🔁L. Maronnierout: N. Donkor
86'
🔁R. Ripartout: Y. Kone

Match stats — Lorient vs Estac Troyes

67%Possession33%
15Shots11
6On target2
2Corners5
1.09xG1.57

Goals against chances

Lorient1 from 1.09 xGabout what the chances were worth
Estac Troyes2 from 1.57 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lorient 3-4-2-1
  • 38Y. MvogoG
  • 20D. SyllaD
  • 3M. TalbiD
  • 32N. AdjeiD
  • 11T. Le BrisM
  • 62A. AvomM
  • 8N. CadiouM
  • 43A. KouassiM
  • 33G. BernardeauF
  • 17J. MakengoF
  • 42M. KoneF
Substitutes
  • 21B. KamaraG
  • 2A. GeorgenD
  • 55N. ObaretinD
  • 95I. ToureD
  • 77P. KatserisD
  • 72N. MbambaM
  • 19S. FayeF
  • 15A. TosinF
  • 10I. JensenF
Coach: Alexandre Dujeux
Estac Troyes 4-2-3-1
  • 33P. BeachG
  • 2L. MaronnierD
  • 6A. MonfrayD
  • 4J. M. DiazD
  • 3A. OuzenadjiD
  • 17A. MilleM
  • 8M. DiopM
  • 10M. IfnaouiM
  • 22H. PicardM
  • 11I. GomisM
  • 20R. RipartF
Substitutes
  • 40H. KonateG
  • 31N. DonkorD
  • 5P. GozziD
  • 26A. PhliponeauM
  • 29D. KarimM
  • 36I. SoukounaM
  • 7K. DiawaraF
  • 37C. BatolaF
  • 39Y. KoneF
Coach: Stephane Dumont

Form going into Lorient vs Estac Troyes

Lorient

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Nice22 August 2026

Estac Troyes

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Paris FC22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Lorient1043398+115
17Estac Troyes10226717-108

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lorient vs Estac Troyes

  • 14 February 2025Estac Troyes 0–1 LorientLigue 2
  • 6 December 2024Lorient 2–0 Estac TroyesLigue 2
  • 12 March 2023Lorient 2–0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
  • 23 October 2022Estac Troyes 2–2 LorientLigue 1
  • 21 May 2022Lorient 1–1 Estac TroyesLigue 1

The full Lorient vs Estac Troyes record →

The result against the call

Estac Troyes won 2–1 at Lorient. The model had leaned towards a win for Lorient at 45% and given a win for Estac Troyes 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: R. Ripart (penalty) 29' for Estac Troyes, L. Maronnier 38' for Estac Troyes, J. Makengo 51' for Lorient. On expected goals it finished 1.09–1.57.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.