29 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Lorient vs Estac Troyes Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade du Moustoir, Lorient
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Lorient 1-2 Estac Troyes.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Lorient, 29% draw, 26% Estac Troyes — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lorient at 45% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lorient0%Draw4%Estac Troyes96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
•Antoine Mille
29'
⚽R. Ripart (pen)
38'
⚽L. Maronnierassist: A. Mille
⚽J. Makengo
51'
🔁M. Koneout: A. Tosin
66'
🔁G. Bernardeauout: I. Jensen
66'
67'
🔁H. Picardout: K. Diawara
🔁J. Makengoout: P. Katseris
73'
🔁T. Le Brisout: S. Faye
73'
78'
🔁A. Milleout: D. Karim
🔁N. Cadiouout: N. Mbamba
84'
85'
🔁I. Gomisout: A. Phliponeau
86'
🔁L. Maronnierout: N. Donkor
86'
🔁R. Ripartout: Y. Kone

Match stats — Lorient vs Estac Troyes

67%Possession33%
15Shots11
6On target2
2Corners5
1.09xG1.57

Goals against chances

Lorient1 from 1.09 xGabout what the chances were worth
Estac Troyes2 from 1.57 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lorient 3-4-2-1
  • 38Y. MvogoG
  • 20D. SyllaD
  • 3M. TalbiD
  • 32N. AdjeiD
  • 11T. Le BrisM
  • 62A. AvomM
  • 8N. CadiouM
  • 43A. KouassiM
  • 33G. BernardeauF
  • 17J. MakengoF
  • 42M. KoneF
Substitutes
  • 21B. KamaraG
  • 2A. GeorgenD
  • 55N. ObaretinD
  • 95I. ToureD
  • 77P. KatserisD
  • 72N. MbambaM
  • 19S. FayeF
  • 15A. TosinF
  • 10I. JensenF
Coach: Alexandre Dujeux
Estac Troyes 4-2-3-1
  • 33P. BeachG
  • 2L. MaronnierD
  • 6A. MonfrayD
  • 4J. M. DiazD
  • 3A. OuzenadjiD
  • 17A. MilleM
  • 8M. DiopM
  • 10M. IfnaouiM
  • 22H. PicardM
  • 11I. GomisM
  • 20R. RipartF
Substitutes
  • 40H. KonateG
  • 31N. DonkorD
  • 5P. GozziD
  • 26A. PhliponeauM
  • 29D. KarimM
  • 36I. SoukounaM
  • 7K. DiawaraF
  • 37C. BatolaF
  • 39Y. KoneF
Coach: Stephane Dumont

Form going into Lorient vs Estac Troyes

Lorient

  • D0-0away to Nice22 August 2026

Estac Troyes

  • D0-0Paris FC22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Lorient41214405
12Estac Troyes411249-54

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lorient vs Estac Troyes

  • 29 August 2026Lorient 1–2 Estac TroyesLigue 1
  • 14 February 2025Estac Troyes 0–1 LorientLigue 2
  • 6 December 2024Lorient 2–0 Estac TroyesLigue 2
  • 12 March 2023Lorient 2–0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
  • 23 October 2022Estac Troyes 2–2 LorientLigue 1
  • 21 May 2022Lorient 1–1 Estac TroyesLigue 1
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.