29 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse Ligue 1 prediction & result

Brest
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Stade Brestois 29 2-2 Toulouse.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Stade Brestois 29, 27% draw, 33% Toulouse — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Stade Brestois 29 at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Stade Brestois 290%Draw4%Toulouse96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽J. Russell-Roweassist: Y. Gboho
⚽K. Doumbiaassist: M. Diambou
18'
Bradley Locko
31'
Pathé Mboup
44'
45+3'
Cristian Cásseres Jr.
46'
🔁I. Dialloout: R. Messali
60'
🔁A. Vossahout: N. Schmidt
62'
⚽C. Tapeassist: C. Casseres
🔁R. Del Castilloout: M. Balde
67'
67'
🔁J. Vignoloout: S. Oppong
🔁M. Diambouout: H. Magnetti
75'
🔁K. Doumbiaout: J. Nonge
75'
78'
🔁T. Jorgensenout: S. Koumbassa
78'
🔁J. Russell-Roweout: S. Hidalgo
🔁G. Llorisout: L. Tousart
83'
🔁P. Mboupout: L. C. Laine M.
83'
89'
Niklas Schmidt
90+4'
Rasmus Nicolaisen
⚽L. Ajorqueassist: H. Magnetti
90'

Match stats — Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse

51%Possession49%
25Shots6
7On target2
7Corners2
2.74xG1.12

Goals against chances

Stade Brestois 292 from 2.74 xGless than the chances were worth
Toulouse2 from 1.12 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Stade Brestois 29 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. SelvikG
  • 70K. LalaD
  • 71R. Le GuenD
  • 4G. LlorisD
  • 2B. LockoD
  • 13J. ChotardM
  • 6M. DiambouM
  • 10R. Del CastilloM
  • 23K. DoumbiaM
  • 9P. MboupM
  • 19L. AjorqueF
Substitutes
  • 30M. PatouilletG
  • 34E. MaillyD
  • 20L. ZogbeD
  • 8H. MagnettiM
  • 7J. NongeM
  • 29L. TousartM
  • 11A. CamblanM
  • 17M. BaldeF
  • 32L. C. Laine M.M
Coach: Julien Lachuer
Toulouse 4-2-3-1
  • 16G. RestesG
  • 94I. DialloD
  • 3M. McKenzieD
  • 2R. NicolaisenD
  • 12C. TapeD
  • 6A. VossahM
  • 23C. CasseresM
  • 7J. VignoloM
  • 8T. JorgensenM
  • 10Y. GbohoM
  • 13J. Russell-RoweF
Substitutes
  • 60M. NifloreG
  • 19D. OdoguD
  • 5S. KoumbassaD
  • 22R. MessaliM
  • 31N. SchmidtM
  • 9S. HidalgoF
  • 37I. AziziF
  • 49A. AmaaouchF
  • 11S. OppongF
Coach: Jens Askou

Form going into Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse

Stade Brestois 29

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Le Mans22 August 2026

Toulouse

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2Lyon22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Stade Brestois 29104331812+615
12Toulouse103431514+113

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse

  • 25 January 2026Stade Brestois 29 0–2 ToulouseLigue 1
  • 24 August 2025Toulouse 2–0 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
  • 30 March 2025Toulouse 2–4 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
  • 22 September 2024Stade Brestois 29 2–0 ToulouseLigue 1
  • 19 May 2024Toulouse 0–3 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1

The full Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse record →

Leading scorers: Stade Brestois 29 and Toulouse

Stade Brestois 29

GoalsAssists

  • L. Ajorque51
  • K. Doumbia42

Toulouse

GoalsAssists

  • C. Tengstedt51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Stade Brestois 29 and Toulouse drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Stade Brestois 29 at 40% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: J. Russell-Rowe 9' for Toulouse, K. Doumbia 18' for Stade Brestois 29, C. Tape 62' for Toulouse, L. Ajorque 90' for Stade Brestois 29. On expected goals it finished 2.74–1.12.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.