29 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse Ligue 1 prediction & result

Brest
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Stade Brestois 29 2-2 Toulouse.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Stade Brestois 29, 27% draw, 33% Toulouse — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Stade Brestois 29 at 40% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Stade Brestois 290%Draw4%Toulouse96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽J. Russell-Roweassist: Y. Gboho
⚽K. Doumbiaassist: M. Diambou
18'
Bradley Locko
31'
Pathé Mboup
44'
45+3'
Cristian Cásseres Jr.
46'
🔁I. Dialloout: R. Messali
60'
🔁A. Vossahout: N. Schmidt
62'
⚽C. Tapeassist: C. Casseres
🔁R. Del Castilloout: M. Balde
67'
67'
🔁J. Vignoloout: S. Oppong
🔁M. Diambouout: H. Magnetti
75'
🔁K. Doumbiaout: J. Nonge
75'
78'
🔁T. Jorgensenout: S. Koumbassa
78'
🔁J. Russell-Roweout: S. Hidalgo
🔁G. Llorisout: L. Tousart
83'
🔁P. Mboupout: L. C. Laine M.
83'
89'
Niklas Schmidt
90+4'
Rasmus Nicolaisen
⚽L. Ajorqueassist: H. Magnetti
90'

Match stats — Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse

51%Possession49%
25Shots6
7On target2
7Corners2
2.74xG1.12

Goals against chances

Stade Brestois 292 from 2.74 xGless than the chances were worth
Toulouse2 from 1.12 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Stade Brestois 29 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. SelvikG
  • 70K. LalaD
  • 71R. Le GuenD
  • 4G. LlorisD
  • 2B. LockoD
  • 13J. ChotardM
  • 6M. DiambouM
  • 10R. Del CastilloM
  • 23K. DoumbiaM
  • 9P. MboupM
  • 19L. AjorqueF
Substitutes
  • 30M. PatouilletG
  • 34E. MaillyD
  • 20L. ZogbeD
  • 8H. MagnettiM
  • 7J. NongeM
  • 29L. TousartM
  • 11A. CamblanM
  • 17M. BaldeF
  • 32L. C. Laine M.M
Coach: Julien Lachuer
Toulouse 4-2-3-1
  • 16G. RestesG
  • 94I. DialloD
  • 3M. McKenzieD
  • 2R. NicolaisenD
  • 12C. TapeD
  • 6A. VossahM
  • 23C. CasseresM
  • 7J. VignoloM
  • 8T. JorgensenM
  • 10Y. GbohoM
  • 13J. Russell-RoweF
Substitutes
  • 60M. NifloreG
  • 19D. OdoguD
  • 5S. KoumbassaD
  • 22R. MessaliM
  • 31N. SchmidtM
  • 9S. HidalgoF
  • 37I. AziziF
  • 49A. AmaaouchF
  • 11S. OppongF
Coach: Jens Askou

Form going into Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse

Stade Brestois 29

  • D2-2away to Le Mans22 August 2026

Toulouse

  • L0-2Lyon22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Stade Brestois 2941216605
17Toulouse402247-32

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse

  • 29 August 2026Stade Brestois 29 2–2 ToulouseLigue 1
  • 25 January 2026Stade Brestois 29 0–2 ToulouseLigue 1
  • 24 August 2025Toulouse 2–0 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
  • 30 March 2025Toulouse 2–4 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
  • 22 September 2024Stade Brestois 29 2–0 ToulouseLigue 1
  • 19 May 2024Toulouse 0–3 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1

Leading scorers: Stade Brestois 29 and Toulouse

Stade Brestois 29

  • K. Doumbia4 goals1 assists

Toulouse

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.