Avai vs Athletic Club MG Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Avai 0-0 Athletic Club MG.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Avai, 27% draw, 31% Athletic Club MG — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Avai at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Avai vs Athletic Club MG
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 94Bruno FerreiraG
- 22João Vitor Cardoso de SouzaD
- 3AllysonD
- 38Jefferson MacielD
- 36DGD
- 77Zé RicardoM
- 8Luiz HenriqueM
- 14Daniel PenhaM
- 95WendersonM
- 10Jean LucasM
- 19Caio Suassuna Gonçalves FerreiraF
- 23Gabriel CiprianoF
- 18HyanM
- 9Léo GamalhoF
- 70GasparF
- 35PedrãoD
- 37RildoF
- 5Del PiageM
- 1Igor BohnG
- 25Paulo VitorM
- 1Luan PolliG
- 22Diogo BatistaD
- 4Lucas BeleziD
- 19J. TorresD
- 6ZecaD
- 16João MiguelM
- 17KauanM
- 5Felipe NegrucciM
- 14Yago SantosM
- 11MaxM
- 9CarlinhosF
- 21D. VeraF
- 13Philipe SampaioD
- 18Pedro OliveiraM
- 15JotaM
- 23EnzoD
- 2Douglas PeléD
- 20W. AponzaF
- 12TonyG
- 8AssisM
Form going into Avai vs Athletic Club MG
Avai
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Cuiaba11 October 2026
- W2-1Londrina7 October 2026
- L0-1Ceara3 October 2026
Athletic Club MG
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Avai | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 43 |
| 13 | Athletic Club MG | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 46 | 46 | 0 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Avai vs Athletic Club MG
- 28 June 2026Athletic Club MG 1–0 AvaiSerie B
- 1 November 2025Avai 2–1 Athletic Club MGSerie B
- 14 July 2025Athletic Club MG 4–0 AvaiSerie B
The result against the call
Avai and Athletic Club MG drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Avai at 42% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.06–0.11.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Avai a 5.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 1.7% after a win, 6.2% after a draw, 10.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 6.2%, 0.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Avai v Athletic Club MG has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 42% / 27% / 31%: the biggest move is Avai's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Avai win42%▲ +5
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Athletic Club MG win31%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.