18 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Dinamo Tbilisi vs Spaeri Erovnuli Liga prediction & result

Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena, Tbilisi
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Dinamo Tbilisi 3-1 Spaeri.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Dinamo Tbilisi, 24% draw, 19% Spaeri — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dinamo Tbilisi at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dinamo Tbilisi99%Draw1%Spaeri0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Nika Ninuaassist: Marios Pourzitidis
20'
44'
•Gocha tsirdava
46'
🔁Temuri tsalughelashviliout: Zurab Golubiani
🔁Khalid doltmurzievout: Mate Vatsadze
57'
🔁Maxime teixeiraout: Lyes Houri
57'
64'
⚽Zurab Golubianiassist: Tornike Askurava
🔁Giorgi Kharaishviliout: tornike kvaratskhelia
65'
🔁santos leoout: Paris Psaltis
65'
⚽Marios Pourzitidisassist: Welton Júnior
69'
🔁Jaba Kankavaout: Barnes Osei
72'
74'
🔁bukhuti putkaradzeout: Nikoloz Chomakhidze
74'
🔁Saba gegiadzeout: Billy Jibril
74'
🔁nika chagunavaout: Sienda Matenjva
⚽Mate Vatsadze
80'
81'
🔁Lasha Kokhreidzeout: d giorgi tsetskhladze
Nika Ninua
90+1'

Match stats — Dinamo Tbilisi vs Spaeri

57%Possession43%
22Shots11
8On target3
5Corners4

Line-ups

Dinamo Tbilisi 4-2-3-1
  • 20Lucas FloresG
  • 6Leonardo SantosD
  • 27N. KurdićD
  • 4N. UgrekhelidzeM
  • 13M. PourzitídisD
  • 23J. KankavaM
  • 8WeltonM
  • 10G. KharaishviliM
  • 22N. NinuaM
  • 14M. Do CoutoF
  • 7K. DoltmurzievF
Substitutes
  • 42Saba TartarashviliG
  • 12A. BahF
  • 34M. GbomaduF
  • 33L. HouriM
  • 3A. KalandadzeD
  • 18T. KvaratskheliaF
  • 11M. VatsadzeF
  • 24B. OseiM
  • 17P. PsaltisD
Coach: T. Ketsbaia
Spaeri 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. PutkaradzeG
  • 22N. ChagunavaD
  • 3L. KachibaiaD
  • 2giorgi pirtakhiaD
  • 14G. SamkharadzeD
  • 5T. TsalughelashviliM
  • 6T. AskuravaM
  • 7S. GegiadzeD
  • 10Tamaz TsetskhladzeM
  • 19G. TsirdavaF
  • 17L. KokhreidzeF
Substitutes
  • 26B. JibrilF
  • 20N. KentchadzeD
  • 8S. MaisuradzeD
  • 13S. MathenjwaD
  • 9G. TsetskhladzeF
  • 25R. InjgiaF
  • 23N. ChomakhidzeG
  • 30Z. BasilashviliF
  • 24Z. GolubianiM
Coach: A. Kighuradze

Form going into Dinamo Tbilisi vs Spaeri

Dinamo Tbilisi

Erovnuli Liga

  • L0-1away to Dinamo Batumi11 October 2026

Spaeri

Erovnuli Liga

  • D3-3Torpedo Kutaisi10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Erovnuli Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Dinamo Tbilisi32161065232+2058
8Spaeri32613134151-1031

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dinamo Tbilisi vs Spaeri

  • 9 August 2026Spaeri 1–2 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
  • 7 May 2026Dinamo Tbilisi 2–1 SpaeriErovnuli Liga
  • 7 March 2026Spaeri 1–2 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
  • 5 December 2024Spaeri 2–2 Dinamo TbilisiDavid Kipiani Cup

Leading scorers: Dinamo Tbilisi and Spaeri

Dinamo Tbilisi

GoalsAssists

  • Rodrigo Silva Ramos22

Spaeri

No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 41 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dinamo Tbilisi beat Spaeri 3–1. The model had made a win for Dinamo Tbilisi its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Nika Ninua 20' for Dinamo Tbilisi, Zurab Golubiani 64' for Spaeri, Marios Pourzitidis 69' for Dinamo Tbilisi, Mate Vatsadze 80' for Dinamo Tbilisi.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dinamo Tbilisi a 20.7% chance to finish top of the regular season: 26.0% after a win, 13.0% after a draw, 9.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.0%, 5.3 points higher than before the match.

For Spaeri the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 95.2% going in: 89.5% after a win, 95.1% after a draw, 97.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 97.1%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Erovnuli Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Dinamo Tbilisi v Spaeri has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 51% / 26% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 57% / 24% / 19%: the biggest move is Dinamo Tbilisi's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Dinamo Tbilisi win57%▲ +6
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. Spaeri win19%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.