17 October 2026, 17:30 UTC

Pisa vs Cremonese Serie B prediction & result

Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa
Referee: Maco Di Loreto, Italy
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Pisa 3-1 Cremonese.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Pisa, 29% draw, 33% Cremonese — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Pisa at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Pisa99%Draw1%Cremonese0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Matteo Tramoniassist: Stefano Moreo
3'
32'
⚽Tommaso Bertiassist: Jari Vandeputte
Arturo Calabresi
32'
35'
Marco Nasti
45'
🔁Marco Nastiout: Adrian Lickunas
53'
Tommaso Barbieri
🔁Arturo Calabresiout: Rosen Bozhinov
63'
🔁Giuseppe Leoneout: Felipe Loyola
63'
Mehdi Léris
67'
72'
🔁Tommaso Bertiout: Manuel De Luca
72'
🔁Jari Vandeputteout: Simone Lottici Tessadri
76'
🔁Salvatore Eliaout: Alessandro Vogliacco
🔁Mehdi Lérisout: Tommaso Marras
78'
🔁Filippo Pittarelloout: Andrea Petagna
78'
⚽Stefano Moreo
79'
81'
Alessandro Vogliacco
83'
🔁Tommaso Barbieriout: Gabriel Herzuah
🔁Simone Zanonout: Antonio Caracciolo
87'
⚽Tommaso Marras
88'
Tommaso Marras
89'
Andrea Primasso
90'

Match stats — Pisa vs Cremonese

55%Possession45%
14Shots10
5On target3
7Corners6
2.39xG0.51

Goals against chances

Pisa3 from 2.39 xGmore than the chances were worth
Cremonese1 from 0.51 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Pisa 3-4-2-1
  • 98A. ConfenteG
  • 33A. CalabresiD
  • 13A. PrimassoD
  • 3S. AngoriD
  • 72S. ZanonM
  • 55G. LeoneM
  • 29O. CorreiaM
  • 7M. LérisM
  • 32S. MoreoM
  • 10M. TramoniM
  • 8F. PittarelloF
Substitutes
  • 11I. FerrahM
  • 14F. LoyolaD
  • 23T. MarrasF
  • 37A. PetagnaF
  • 2R. BozhinovD
  • 36G. PiccininiM
  • 17E. RaoF
  • 1S. ScuffetG
  • 21İ. VuralM
Coach: P. Bianco
Cremonese 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. FulignatiG
  • 4T. BarbieriD
  • 6F. BaschirottoD
  • 5S. LupertoD
  • 71S. EliaD
  • 33A. GrassiM
  • 10Adin LičinaM
  • 2M. ThorsbyM
  • 14T. BertiM
  • 27J. VandeputteM
  • 19M. NastiF
Substitutes
  • 15M. BianchettiD
  • 22F. AgazziG
  • 18M. CollocoloM
  • 9M. De LucaF
  • 13Fellipe JackD
  • 12M. FestaG
  • 26Gabriel HerzuahF
  • 17A. LickūnasF
  • 25D. LordkipanidzeM
Coach: F. Pecchia

Form going into Pisa vs Cremonese

Pisa

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0away to Vicenza Virtus10 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Mantova20 September 2026
  • L1-4Virtus Entella11 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Juve Stabia6 September 2026
  • W2-1Catanzaro30 August 2026

Cremonese

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Arezzo10 October 2026
  • D0-0Virtus Entella19 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Cesena12 September 2026
  • W3-1Padova6 September 2026
  • L0-3Modena28 August 2026

What these results say

  • Pisa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Pisa had three goals or more.
  • Cremonese failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Pisa114432017+316
9Cremonese114341412+215

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Pisa vs Cremonese

  • 10 May 2026Cremonese 3–0 PisaSerie A
  • 7 November 2025Pisa 1–0 CremoneseSerie A
  • 13 May 2025Pisa 2–1 CremoneseSerie B
  • 3 November 2024Cremonese 1–3 PisaSerie B
  • 1 May 2024Cremonese 2–1 PisaSerie B
  • 2 December 2023Pisa 0–0 CremoneseSerie B

Leading scorers: Pisa and Cremonese

Pisa

GoalsAssists

  • F. Pittarello41
  • M. Tramoni35
  • T. Marras31

Cremonese

GoalsAssists

  • F. Bonazzoli62

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Pisa beat Cremonese 3–1. The model had made a win for Pisa its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Matteo Tramoni 3' for Pisa, Tommaso Berti 32' for Cremonese, Stefano Moreo 79' for Pisa, Tommaso Marras 88' for Pisa. On expected goals it finished 2.39–0.51.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Pisa a 29.2% chance to finish in the top four: 34.7% after a win, 26.6% after a draw, 24.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.7%, 5.5 points higher than before the match.

For Cremonese the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 28.3% going in: 34.8% after a win, 27.0% after a draw, 23.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.2%, 5.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.