18 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

São Bernardo vs Criciuma Serie B prediction & result

Estadio Primeiro de Maio, Sao Bernardo
Referee: Bruno Pereira Vasconcelos
Full time0 – 1

Final score: São Bernardo 0-1 Criciuma.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% São Bernardo, 28% draw, 27% Criciuma — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

São Bernardo at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

São Bernardo0%Draw5%Criciuma95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

35'
⚽César Martinsassist: Willean Bernardo
61'
🔁César Martinsout: Bruno Alves
61'
🔁Rómulo Oteroout: Waguininho
🔁Paráout: Mário Sérgio Valerio
66'
🔁Lucas Fernandesout: Fabrício Daniel
66'
🔁Pedro Gabriel Pereira Lopesout: Daniel Davi Simão Roque
66'
69'
🔁Nicolas Godinho Johannout: Yuri Jonathan
🔁Foguinhoout: Romisson
73'
🔁Luiz Gustavo Oliveira da Silvaout: Pedro Vitor Ferreira da Silva
80'
84'
🔁Diego Gonçalvesout: Guilherme Teixeira Lobo
85'
🔁Willean Bernardoout: Marcio Almeida de Oliveira
90+8'
Guilherme Teixeira Lobo
Felipe Garcia
90+8'

Match stats — São Bernardo vs Criciuma

53%Possession47%
6Shots9
0On target2
9Corners2
0.42xG0.78

Goals against chances

São Bernardo0 from 0.42 xGabout what the chances were worth
Criciuma1 from 0.78 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

São Bernardo 3-4-3
  • 1Alex AlvesG
  • 77MarcãoD
  • 35JemersonD
  • 90LuizãoD
  • 21Hugo SanchesM
  • 8FoguinhoM
  • 26EduardoM
  • 6ParáM
  • 31Lucas FernandesF
  • 9Felipe GarciaF
  • 29PedrinhoF
Substitutes
  • 97AugustoD
  • 10Fabrício DanielF
  • 42HyoranM
  • 7LucasF
  • 33Mário SérgioD
  • 11Pedro VitorF
  • 3HélderD
  • 30BreninhoM
  • 36João Vitor Rodrigues GaldinoM
Coach: Vinícius Bergantin
Criciuma 3-4-2-1
  • 32AirtonG
  • 37César MartinsD
  • 3RodrigoD
  • 4Luciano CastánD
  • 97Willean LepoM
  • 14RonaldM
  • 7Fellipe MateusM
  • 22Marcelo HermesM
  • 91R. OteroM
  • 77Diego GonçalvesM
  • 9NicolasF
Substitutes
  • 31Hiago Accinelli da RozaM
  • 41Jean IrmerM
  • 13WaguininhoF
  • 8Guilherme LoboM
  • 11RomarinhoF
  • 90Gabriel Capella ChavesF
  • 6MarcinhoD
  • 34Bruno AlvesD
  • 33YuriF
Coach: Umberto Louzer

Form going into São Bernardo vs Criciuma

São Bernardo

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Juventude11 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Sport Recife6 October 2026
  • W3-1CRB2 October 2026

Criciuma

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0America Mineiro12 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Ceara8 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Londrina2 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11São Bernardo381411135444+1053
5Criciuma38188123832+662

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: São Bernardo vs Criciuma

  • 27 June 2026Criciuma 1–0 São BernardoSerie B

The result against the call

Criciuma won 1–0 at São Bernardo. The model had leaned towards a win for São Bernardo at 45% and given a win for Criciuma 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: César Martins 35' for Criciuma. On expected goals it finished 0.42–0.78.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Criciuma a 22.2% chance to finish in the top four: 41.0% after a win, 19.9% after a draw, 13.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.0%, 18.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on São Bernardo v Criciuma has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 45% / 28% / 27%: the biggest move is São Bernardo's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. São Bernardo win45%▲ +3
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Criciuma win27%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.