18 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

CRB vs Botafogo SP Serie B prediction & result

Estádio Rei Pelé, Maceio
Referee: Anderson Daronco
Full time0 – 1

Final score: CRB 0-1 Botafogo SP.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% CRB, 24% draw, 23% Botafogo SP — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

CRB at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CRB0%Draw6%Botafogo SP94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
•Hygor
22'
⚽Rafael Gava (pen)
Matheus Simonete Bressanelli
22'
45+1'
Gabriel de Souza Inocencio
Thiago Fernandes Rodrigues
55'
58'
Darlan Batista Cobo Da Silva
61'
Patrick Brey
61'
🔁Darlan Batista Cobo Da Silvaout: Hebert Willian Badaro Oliveira
🔁 Thiago Fernandes Rodriguesout: Vinicius Barata
63'
Diogo Hereda da Silva
68'
🔁Diogo Hereda da Silvaout: Kevin
72'
72'
🔁José Hugo Sousa dos Santosout: Felipe Vieira Augusto
72'
🔁Rafael Gavaout: Thiago Henrique Moraes
72'
🔁Marco Antonio de Freitas Batistussiout: Matheus Sales
79'
⚽Hygorassist: Thiago Henrique Moraes
🔁Daniel Sampaio Simõesout: Estevão Barreto de Oliveira
80'
🔁Mikaelout: Ygor Catatau
80'
🔁Pedro Castroout: Geovane
80'
86'
Felipe Vieira Augusto
89'
🔁Leandro Macielout: Yuri Felipe Santos da Conceição

Match stats — CRB vs Botafogo SP

67%Possession33%
18Shots9
3On target4
7Corners8
1.2xG1.79

Goals against chances

CRB0 from 1.20 xGless than the chances were worth
Botafogo SP1 from 1.79 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

CRB 4-1-4-1
  • 1Vitor CaetanoG
  • 32HeredaD
  • 22BressanD
  • 33LynconD
  • 36Lucas LovatD
  • 21Pedro CastroM
  • 17ThiaguinhoM
  • 8CrystopherM
  • 10DanielM
  • 97Dadá BelmonteM
  • 28MikaelF
Substitutes
  • 45De LuccaM
  • 7Douglas BaggioF
  • 27Fábio AlemãoD
  • 18GeovaneM
  • 44HenriD
  • 2KevinD
  • 12MatheusG
  • 20Vinicius BarataF
  • 16MayconD
Coach: Fábio Matias
Botafogo SP 5-4-1
  • 1Victor SouzaG
  • 22Gabriel InocêncioD
  • 2JonathanD
  • 4VilarD
  • 27DarlanD
  • 6Patrick BreyD
  • 28Marco AntônioM
  • 10Rafael GavaM
  • 5L. MacielM
  • 30Zé HugoM
  • 9HygorF
Substitutes
  • 7KelvinF
  • 26Felipe VieiraD
  • 18Arthur CaíkeF
  • 17Guilherme QueirózF
  • 16Matheus SalesM
  • 12JordanG
  • 31Pedro HenriqueD
  • 29Thiago HenriqueM
  • 33BadaróD
Coach: Cláudio Tencati

Form going into CRB vs Botafogo SP

CRB

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Fortaleza EC12 October 2026
  • W3-1Atletico Goianiense7 October 2026
  • L1-3away to São Bernardo2 October 2026

Botafogo SP

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Ceara13 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Operario-PR7 October 2026
  • L0-1Vila Nova3 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7CRB38178135852+659
12Botafogo SP38149154541+451

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: CRB vs Botafogo SP

  • 30 June 2026Botafogo SP 0–1 CRBSerie B
  • 24 September 2025CRB 3–2 Botafogo SPSerie B
  • 26 May 2025Botafogo SP 2–1 CRBSerie B
  • 25 September 2024Botafogo SP 0–0 CRBSerie B
  • 17 July 2024CRB 4–1 Botafogo SPSerie B
  • 5 August 2023CRB 0–0 Botafogo SPSerie B

Leading scorers: CRB and Botafogo SP

CRB

GoalsAssists

  • Mikael174
  • Crystopher78

Botafogo SP

GoalsAssists

  • Hygor110
  • Everton Morelli104

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Botafogo SP won 1–0 at CRB. The model had leaned towards a win for CRB at 53% and given a win for Botafogo SP 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Hygor 79' for Botafogo SP. On expected goals it finished 1.20–1.79.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave CRB a 5.7% chance to finish in the top four: 7.9% after a win, 2.0% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 4.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on CRB v Botafogo SP has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 48% / 26% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 53% / 24% / 23%: the biggest move is CRB's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. CRB win53%▲ +5
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. Botafogo SP win23%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.