Torpedo Kutaisi vs Rustavi Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Torpedo Kutaisi 0-1 Rustavi.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Torpedo Kutaisi, 29% draw, 35% Rustavi — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Torpedo Kutaisi at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Torpedo Kutaisi vs Rustavi
Line-ups
- 1O. GoshadzeG
- 22D. BukiaD
- 4M. ŠimićD
- 24L. LatsabidzeD
- 8M. ItrakM
- 17N. LominadzeM
- 7V. MamuchashviliM
- 33M. StamatovD
- 14Felipe PiresF
- 9K. AndrićF
- 39V. PinsonF
- 29M. ChitaishviliM
- 35D. DeisadzeM
- 10G. KokhreidzeM
- 38S. KopalianiG
- 15L. KupravaD
- 5T. NadaraiaD
- 40A. ShulaiaM
- 20D. SkorupM
- 21P. BeruashviliG
- 2S. AndghuladzeD
- 4DavidD
- 3V. PatsatsiaD
- 19N. ChikovaniD
- 22Y. NakanoM
- 13A. GujabidzeM
- 40D. UbilavaD
- 7K. S. AbdulM
- 9JeanF
- 10P. OseiF
- 12T. TarkashviliD
- 20L. ParkadzeM
- 11S. KessiF
- 1S. KardavaG
- 27M. KapanadzeD
- 8K. KakashviliM
- 18N. JaparidzeF
- 23M. GambošM
- 5Kevin William CeijasF
Form going into Torpedo Kutaisi vs Rustavi
Torpedo Kutaisi
Erovnuli Liga
- D3-3away to Spaeri10 October 2026
Rustavi
Erovnuli Liga
- W3-1Dila10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 53 | 44 | +9 | 43 |
| 4 | Rustavi | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 40 | 28 | +12 | 56 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Torpedo Kutaisi vs Rustavi
- 7 August 2026Rustavi 1–0 Torpedo KutaisiErovnuli Liga
- 5 May 2026Torpedo Kutaisi 1–1 RustaviErovnuli Liga
- 7 March 2026Rustavi 1–0 Torpedo KutaisiErovnuli Liga
- 12 October 2022Rustavi 2–4 Torpedo KutaisiDavid Kipiani Cup
- 27 October 2019Rustavi 2–0 Torpedo KutaisiErovnuli Liga
- 11 August 2019Torpedo Kutaisi 0–1 RustaviErovnuli Liga
Leading scorers: Torpedo Kutaisi and Rustavi
Torpedo Kutaisi
GoalsAssists
- K. Andrić82
- G. Arabidze58
- Felipe Pires30
Rustavi
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rustavi won 1–0 at Torpedo Kutaisi. The model had leaned towards a win for Torpedo Kutaisi at 36% and given a win for Rustavi 35%. The goal: jean 15' for Rustavi.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Torpedo Kutaisi a 4.8% chance to finish in the top four: 8.2% after a win, 2.6% after a draw, 1.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 1.5%, 3.3 points lower than before the match.
For Rustavi the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 21.4% going in: 31.9% after a win, 18.7% after a draw, 12.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.9%, 10.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Erovnuli Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Torpedo Kutaisi v Rustavi has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 37% / 31% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 36% / 29% / 35%: the biggest move is Rustavi's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Torpedo Kutaisi win36%▼ −1
- Draw29%▼ −2
- Rustavi win35%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.