18 October 2026, 21:00 UTC

Vila Nova vs Novorizontino Serie B prediction & result

Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga, Goiania
Referee: Felipe Fernandes de Lima
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Vila Nova 2-2 Novorizontino.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Vila Nova, 28% draw, 36% Novorizontino — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Vila Nova at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vila Nova96%Draw4%Novorizontino0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

25'
⚽Robsonassist: Eduardo Brock
Hayner
27'
Willian Maranhão
32'
36'
Robson
41'
🔁Sanderout: Maykon Kesley de Jesus Ramalho
🔁Willian Maranhãoout: Raphael Guimarães de Paula
45'
45'
🔁Robsonout: Carlos Henrique de Moura Brito
⚽Raphael Guimarães de Paulaassist: Higor Meritão
62'
65'
🔁Nicolas Morês da Cruzout: Juninho
🔁Higor Meritãoout: Nathan Camargo
70'
⚽André Luísassist: Raphael Guimarães de Paula
71'
75'
🔁Luís Oyamaout: Vinicius
75'
🔁Francisco Reidiney Duarte Gomesout: Ronald Barcellos Arantes
🔁Haynerout: Igor Cariús
77'
🔁André Luísout: Guilherme Augusto Alves Dellatorre
77'
78'
Matheus Henrique Bianqui
🔁Marquinhos Gabrielout: Tiago Pagnussat
84'
🔁Everton Galdinoout: enzo
84'
84'
🔁Romulo Azevedo Simãoout: C. Ortiz
90+5'
Maykon Kesley de Jesus Ramalho
90+8'
⚽C. Ortizassist: Madson Ferreira dos Santos

Match stats — Vila Nova vs Novorizontino

58%Possession42%
11Shots11
5On target4
6Corners4
1.08xG0.48

Goals against chances

Vila Nova2 from 1.08 xGmore than the chances were worth
Novorizontino2 from 0.48 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Vila Nova 4-2-3-1
  • 1Helton LeiteG
  • 22HaynerD
  • 4Douglas MendesD
  • 23Jonathan CostaD
  • 6HigorD
  • 21Higor MeritãoM
  • 8Willian MaranhãoM
  • 17Everton GaldinoM
  • 10Marquinhos GabrielM
  • 99JandersonM
  • 7André LuísF
Substitutes
  • 29DalbersonG
  • 14AndersonD
  • 49DellatorreF
  • 31DodôM
  • 70Emerson UrsoF
  • 18EnzoM
  • 16Igor CariúsD
  • 9LincolnF
  • 20Nathan CamargoM
Coach: Guto Ferreira
Novorizontino 4-2-3-1
  • 93JordiG
  • 2MadsonD
  • 3CarlinhosD
  • 14Eduardo BrockD
  • 5SanderD
  • 17Matheus BianquiM
  • 6Luis OyamaM
  • 41ReidineyM
  • 10RomuloM
  • 30Nicolas CarecaM
  • 11RobsonF
Substitutes
  • 31CésarG
  • 50JuninhoM
  • 18Léo NaldiM
  • 24J. LoraD
  • 28MarlonM
  • 66MaykonD
  • 8C. OrtízF
  • 7Ronald BarcellosF
  • 16ViníciusF
Coach: Enderson Moreira

Form going into Vila Nova vs Novorizontino

Vila Nova

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Nautico Recife11 October 2026
  • D0-0Cuiaba7 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Botafogo SP3 October 2026

Novorizontino

All competitions we cover

  • W5-1Ponte Preta12 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Nautico Recife8 October 2026
  • W3-0Goias2 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Vila Nova38199105339+1466
1Novorizontino38211076732+3573

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vila Nova vs Novorizontino

  • 26 June 2026Novorizontino 2–1 Vila NovaSerie B
  • 28 September 2025Novorizontino 1–1 Vila NovaSerie B
  • 30 May 2025Vila Nova 0–1 NovorizontinoSerie B
  • 31 August 2024Novorizontino 2–0 Vila NovaSerie B
  • 14 May 2024Vila Nova 2–1 NovorizontinoSerie B
  • 30 July 2023Novorizontino 3–1 Vila NovaSerie B

Leading scorers: Vila Nova and Novorizontino

Vila Nova

GoalsAssists

  • Janderson109
  • André Luís92

Novorizontino

GoalsAssists

  • Robson165
  • Romulo119
  • Matheus Bianqui70

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Vila Nova and Novorizontino drew 2–2. The goals: Robson 25' for Novorizontino, Raphael Guimarães de Paula 62' for Vila Nova, André Luís 71' for Vila Nova, C. Ortiz 90+8' for Novorizontino. On expected goals it finished 1.08–0.48.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vila Nova a 23.3% chance to win the league: 41.5% after a win, 18.0% after a draw, 7.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 18.0%, 5.3 points lower than before the match.

For Novorizontino the question was the chance to win the league, 37.4% going in: 58.8% after a win, 34.8% after a draw, 16.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 34.8%, 2.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.