7 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Avai vs São Bernardo Serie B prediction & result

Ressacada
Referee: Anderson Daronco
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Avai 2-1 São Bernardo.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Avai, 28% draw, 39% São Bernardo — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

São Bernardo at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

45'
🔁Pedro Gabriel Pereira Lopesout: Daniel Davi Simão Roque
45'
🔁Lucas Fernandesout: Breno Ruan Melo Almeida
53'
Hugo Sanches Nogueira Ribeiro Magalhães
🔁Hyanout: Gaspar
63'
🔁Luiz Henriqueout: Kauã Gabriel Pereira Dos Santos
63'
🔁Léo Gamalhoout: Marcio Vitor Barbosa Da Silva
63'
71'
⚽Fabrício Danielassist: Pará
🔁João Vitorout: Wallison
72'
75'
🔁Fabrício Danielout: Felipe Garcia
75'
🔁Eduardo·da Silva Albuquerqueout: Foguinho
⚽Pará (OG)
79'
🔁Wendersonout: Gabriel Cipriano
81'
⚽Gasparassist: Marcio Vitor Barbosa Da Silva
85'
88'
🔁Hugo Sanches Nogueira Ribeiro Magalhãesout: Daniel Amorim
90+3'
Marcão Silva
90+5'
Breno Ruan Melo Almeida

Match stats — Avai vs São Bernardo

48%Possession52%
18Shots11
8On target5
8Corners5
1.01xG0.68

Goals against chances

Avai2 from 1.01 xGmore than the chances were worth
São Bernardo1 from 0.68 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Avai 4-2-3-1
  • 1Igor BohnG
  • 22João Vitor Cardoso de SouzaD
  • 3AllysonD
  • 40ReynaldoD
  • 66QuaresmaD
  • 77Zé RicardoM
  • 8Luiz HenriqueM
  • 18HyanM
  • 10Jean LucasM
  • 95WendersonM
  • 9Léo GamalhoF
Substitutes
  • 2WallisonD
  • 70GasparF
  • 25Paulo VitorM
  • 26Vinicius Miguel ImmigD
  • 35PedrãoD
  • 15Guilherme VargasD
  • 20Isaías PereiraF
  • 30Kauã Gabriel Pereira Dos SantosF
  • 59Lopes GabrielF
Coach: Allan Aal
São Bernardo 3-4-3
  • 1Alex AlvesG
  • 77MarcãoD
  • 35JemersonD
  • 90LuizãoD
  • 21Hugo SanchesM
  • 14Lucas LimaM
  • 26EduardoM
  • 6ParáM
  • 31Lucas FernandesF
  • 10Fabrício DanielF
  • 29PedrinhoF
Substitutes
  • 42HyoranM
  • 89Daniel AmorimF
  • 9Felipe GarciaF
  • 36João Vitor Rodrigues GaldinoM
  • 8FoguinhoM
  • 37D. DaviF
  • 33Mário SérgioD
  • 12Júnior OliveiraG
  • 27EchaporãF
Coach: Vinícius Bergantin

Form going into Avai vs São Bernardo

Avai

Serie B

  • L0-1away to Nautico Recife31 October 2026
  • L0-2Botafogo SP24 October 2026
  • D0-0Athletic Club MG18 October 2026

São Bernardo

Serie B

  • W2-1away to Cuiaba1 November 2026
  • W3-2Vila Nova24 October 2026
  • L0-1Criciuma18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Avai38127193747-1043
11São Bernardo381411135444+1053

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Avai vs São Bernardo

  • 17 July 2026São Bernardo 1–1 AvaiSerie B

The result against the call

Avai beat São Bernardo 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for São Bernardo at 39% and given a win for Avai 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Fabrício Daniel 71' for São Bernardo, Pará (own goal) 79' for Avai, Gaspar 85' for Avai. On expected goals it finished 1.01–0.68.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Avai a 98.5% chance to finish in the bottom four: 96.1% after a win, 100.0% after a draw, 100.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 96.1%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Avai v São Bernardo has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 36% / 28% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 33% / 28% / 39%: the biggest move is Avai's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Avai win33%▼ −3
  2. Draw28%=
  3. São Bernardo win39%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.