7 November 2026, 23:00 UTC

Vila Nova vs Criciuma Serie B prediction & result

Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga, Goiania
Referee: Bruno Arleu
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Vila Nova 1-0 Criciuma.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Vila Nova, 29% draw, 26% Criciuma — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Vila Nova at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vila Nova97%Draw3%Criciuma0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
🔁Nicolas Godinho Johannout: Jhonata Robert Alves da Silva
⚽Marquinhos Gabrielassist: Janderson
11'
45'
🔁Diego Gonçalvesout: Eduardo Biasi
45'
🔁Rodrigo Fagundesout: Yuri Jonathan
47'
Eduardo Biasi
🔁André Luísout: Lincoln
68'
🔁Raphael Guimarães de Paulaout: Higor Meritão
68'
73'
🔁Fellipe Mateusout: Waguininho
🔁Igor Cariúsout: Hayner
73'
🔁Higor Luiz de Souzaout: Willian Prado Camargo
80'
🔁Douglas Mendesout: Tiago Pagnussat
80'
83'
🔁Willean Bernardoout: Romarinho
Everton Galdino
86'
87'
Romarinho
Higor Meritão
88'
89'
Marcelo Hermes

Match stats — Vila Nova vs Criciuma

39%Possession61%
14Shots4
3On target1
8Corners7
0.69xG0.2

Goals against chances

Vila Nova1 from 0.69 xGabout what the chances were worth
Criciuma0 from 0.20 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Vila Nova 4-2-3-1
  • 1Helton LeiteG
  • 16Igor CariúsD
  • 23Jonathan CostaD
  • 4Douglas MendesD
  • 6HigorD
  • 15DuduM
  • 31DodôM
  • 17Everton GaldinoM
  • 10Marquinhos GabrielM
  • 99JandersonM
  • 7André LuísF
Substitutes
  • 13Willian FormigaD
  • 14AndersonD
  • 29DalbersonG
  • 49DellatorreF
  • 70Emerson UrsoF
  • 18EnzoM
  • 22HaynerD
  • 21Higor MeritãoM
  • 9LincolnF
Coach: Guto Ferreira
Criciuma 3-4-2-1
  • 32AirtonG
  • 37César MartinsD
  • 3RodrigoD
  • 4Luciano CastánD
  • 97Willean LepoM
  • 14RonaldM
  • 7Fellipe MateusM
  • 22Marcelo HermesM
  • 91R. OteroM
  • 77Diego GonçalvesM
  • 9NicolasF
Substitutes
  • 6MarcinhoD
  • 34Bruno AlvesD
  • 10Jhonata RobertF
  • 21João CarlosF
  • 33YuriF
  • 5EduardoM
  • 70PedroG
  • 11RomarinhoF
  • 13WaguininhoF
Coach: Umberto Louzer

Form going into Vila Nova vs Criciuma

Vila Nova

Serie B

  • D2-2Juventude31 October 2026
  • L2-3away to São Bernardo24 October 2026
  • D2-2Novorizontino18 October 2026

Criciuma

Serie B

  • W2-0Ponte Preta30 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Sport Recife24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to São Bernardo18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Vila Nova38199105339+1466
5Criciuma38188123832+662

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vila Nova vs Criciuma

  • 18 July 2026Criciuma 2–0 Vila NovaSerie B
  • 3 October 2025Vila Nova 1–1 CriciumaSerie B
  • 9 June 2025Criciuma 1–0 Vila NovaSerie B
  • 23 August 2023Criciuma 1–0 Vila NovaSerie B
  • 12 May 2023Vila Nova 0–0 CriciumaSerie B
  • 4 October 2022Vila Nova 1–0 CriciumaSerie B

Leading scorers: Vila Nova and Criciuma

Vila Nova

GoalsAssists

  • Janderson109
  • André Luís92

Criciuma

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 38 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Vila Nova beat Criciuma 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Vila Nova at 45%. The goal: Marquinhos Gabriel 11' for Vila Nova. On expected goals it finished 0.69–0.20.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vila Nova a 13.5% chance to finish in the top two: 23.2% after a win, 5.5% after a draw, 1.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.2%, 9.7 points higher than before the match.

For Criciuma the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 2.9% going in: 10.5% after a win, under 1% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.