6 November 2026, 19:30 UTC

Ascoli vs Palermo Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno
Referee: Rapuano Andrea
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Ascoli 1-1 Palermo.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Ascoli, 28% draw, 28% Palermo — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ascoli at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ascoli4%Draw93%Palermo3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Matteo Brunoriassist: Abdoul Guiebre
19'
🔁Gennao Acamporaout: Don Bolsius
26'
45'
🔁Dominic Vavassoriout: Filippo·Ranocchia
55'
⚽Filippo·Ranocchiaassist: Tommaso Cassandro
🔁Tommaso Milaneseout: Sergiu Perciun
61'
🔁Andrea·Silipoout: Giacomo De Pieri
62'
63'
🔁Jacopo Segreout: Luca Mazzitelli
63'
🔁Hernaniout: Claudio Gomes
72'
🔁Joel Pohjanpaloout: Alessandro Gabrielloni
75'
Nahuel Estévez
🔁Simone D'Uffiziout: amine chakir
75'
🔁Matteo Brunoriout: Gabriele Gori
75'
77'
🔁Nahuel Estévezout: Giangiacomo Magnani

Match stats — Ascoli vs Palermo

57%Possession43%
10Shots18
3On target5
5Corners2
1.32xG1.63

Goals against chances

Ascoli1 from 1.32 xGabout what the chances were worth
Palermo1 from 1.63 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ascoli 3-5-2
  • 1S. VitaleG
  • 5L. VenutiD
  • 30M. CuradoD
  • 33N. RizzoD
  • 7A. SilipoM
  • 62T. MilaneseM
  • 8G. CorradiniM
  • 13G. AcamporaM
  • 19A. GuiébréM
  • 99Matteo BrunoriF
  • 15S. D'UffiziF
Substitutes
  • 14A. OliveriM
  • 11S. PerciunM
  • 27M. RicciM
  • 77D. BolsiusF
  • 9A. ChakirF
  • 45G. CrespiG
  • 21G. De PieriM
  • 32F. GattoniD
  • 35G. GoriF
Coach: Francesco Tomei
Palermo 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. PerinG
  • 84T. CassandroD
  • 29P. PedaD
  • 32P. CeccaroniD
  • 3T. AugelloD
  • 24N. EstévezM
  • 8J. SegreM
  • 9D. VavassoriM
  • 23HernaniM
  • 17D. JohnsenM
  • 20J. PohjanpaloF
Substitutes
  • 12M. NespolaG
  • 36L. MazzitelliM
  • 96G. MagnaniD
  • 11E. GyasiD
  • 6C. GomesM
  • 99A. GabrielloniF
  • 14M. FortinG
  • 33A. BozzolanD
  • 10F. RanocchiaM
Coach: F. Inzaghi

Form going into Ascoli vs Palermo

Ascoli

Serie B

  • D0-0away to Arezzo1 November 2026
  • W2-0Sampdoria27 October 2026
  • W6-1away to Catanzaro24 October 2026
  • D1-1Empoli17 October 2026

Palermo

Serie B

  • W3-1Vicenza Virtus1 November 2026
  • D3-3away to Pisa28 October 2026
  • W2-1Carrarese25 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Mantova17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Ascoli went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Ascoli scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Ascoli had two goals or fewer.
  • Palermo went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Palermo scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Palermo won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Ascoli11551177+1020
1Palermo118302513+1227

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ascoli vs Palermo

  • 5 May 2024Palermo 2–2 AscoliSerie B
  • 16 September 2023Ascoli 0–1 PalermoSerie B
  • 29 January 2023Ascoli 1–2 PalermoSerie B
  • 27 August 2022Palermo 2–3 AscoliSerie B
  • 4 May 2019Ascoli 1–2 PalermoSerie B
  • 27 December 2018Palermo 3–0 AscoliSerie B

Leading scorers: Ascoli and Palermo

Ascoli

GoalsAssists

  • A. Silipo41
  • G. Gori32

Palermo

GoalsAssists

  • D. Johnsen75
  • D. Vavassori61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ascoli and Palermo drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Ascoli at 44% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Matteo Brunori 19' for Ascoli, Filippo·Ranocchia 55' for Palermo. On expected goals it finished 1.32–1.63.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ascoli a 24.0% chance to finish top of the regular season: 28.6% after a win, 21.4% after a draw, 15.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 21.4%, 2.6 points lower than before the match.

For Palermo the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 52.6% going in: 63.3% after a win, 54.6% after a draw, 46.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 54.6%, 2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Ascoli v Palermo has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 33% / 31% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 44% / 28% / 28%: the biggest move is Ascoli's chance of winning, up 11 points.

  1. Ascoli win44%▲ +11
  2. Draw28%▼ −3
  3. Palermo win28%▼ −8

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.