7 November 2026, 19:10 UTC

Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC Serie B prediction & result

Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi, Novo Horizonte
Referee: Davi de Oliveira Lacerda
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Novorizontino 2-1 Fortaleza EC.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Novorizontino, 26% draw, 21% Fortaleza EC — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Novorizontino at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Novorizontino98%Draw2%Fortaleza EC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 3 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Nicolas Morês da Cruz
7'
Nicolas Morês da Cruz
8'
8'
⚽Paulo Bayaassist: Jailson Siqueira
19'
•Lucas Emanoel
20'
Lucas Emanoel
⚽Matheus Henrique Bianqui
28'
45+5'
Jailson Siqueira
🔁Patrick Marcos de Sousa Freitasout: Eduardo Brock
45+9'
🔁Francisco Reidiney Duarte Gomesout: Ronald Barcellos Arantes
45'
50'
🔁Pierreout: Lucas Sasha
57'
🔁Pedro Henriqueout: Juan Camilo Cantillo
⚽Luís Oyamaassist: Ronald Barcellos Arantes
71'
73'
Tomás Cardona
🔁Romulo Azevedo Simãoout: Maykon Kesley de Jesus Ramalho
77'
🔁Robsonout: Carlos Henrique de Moura Brito
77'
77'
🔁Paulo Ricardo de Souza Babilôniaout: Kaio Henrique
77'
🔁Paulo Bayaout: Ryan Gustavo de Lima
Ronald Barcellos Arantes
87'
🔁Matheus Henrique Bianquiout: Juninho
90+1'

Match stats — Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC

49%Possession51%
18Shots5
4On target1
6Corners2
0.89xG0.3

Goals against chances

Novorizontino2 from 0.89 xGmore than the chances were worth
Fortaleza EC1 from 0.30 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Novorizontino 4-2-3-1
  • 93JordiG
  • 2MadsonD
  • 3CarlinhosD
  • 4PatrickD
  • 5SanderD
  • 17Matheus BianquiM
  • 6Luis OyamaM
  • 30Nicolas CarecaM
  • 10RomuloM
  • 41ReidineyM
  • 11RobsonF
Substitutes
  • 28MarlonM
  • 8C. OrtízF
  • 18Léo NaldiM
  • 27Diego MathiasF
  • 66MaykonD
  • 7Ronald BarcellosF
  • 14Eduardo BrockD
  • 31CésarG
  • 50JuninhoM
Coach: Enderson Moreira
Fortaleza EC 3-4-3
  • 1João RicardoG
  • 3Lucas GazalD
  • 15Bartolomeu Jacinto QuissangaD
  • 6T. CardonaD
  • 28PaulinhoM
  • 20JaílsonM
  • 5PierreM
  • 75RodriguinhoM
  • 16Pedro HenriqueF
  • 19Lucas EmanoelF
  • 77Paulo BayaF
Substitutes
  • 8RonaldM
  • 12Kaio HenriqueD
  • 11VitinhoF
  • 17Nathan FogaçaF
  • 13Maurício Júnior Lima RodriguesD
  • 88Lucas SashaM
  • 38LuccaM
  • 25Vinícius SilvestreG
  • 91Francisco da CostaF
Coach: Paulo Autuori

Form going into Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC

Novorizontino

Serie B

  • W2-1Operario-PR1 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Atletico Goianiense24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Vila Nova18 October 2026

Fortaleza EC

Serie B

  • D0-0Atletico Goianiense2 November 2026
  • D2-2away to Ponte Preta24 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Sport Recife16 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Novorizontino38211076732+3573
4Fortaleza EC38171474533+1265

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC

  • 18 July 2026Fortaleza EC 1–0 NovorizontinoSerie B

Leading scorers: Novorizontino and Fortaleza EC

Novorizontino

GoalsAssists

  • Robson165
  • Romulo119
  • Matheus Bianqui70

Fortaleza EC

GoalsAssists

  • Maílton103

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Novorizontino beat Fortaleza EC 2–1. The model had made a win for Novorizontino its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Paulo Baya 8' for Fortaleza EC, Matheus Henrique Bianqui 28' for Novorizontino, Luís Oyama 71' for Novorizontino. Sent off: Nicolas Morês da Cruz (Novorizontino) 8', Lucas Emanoel (Fortaleza EC) 20', Tomás Cardona (Fortaleza EC) 73'. On expected goals it finished 0.89–0.30.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Novorizontino a 79.1% chance to win the league: 92.2% after a win, 75.6% after a draw, 44.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 92.2%, 13.1 points higher than before the match.

For Fortaleza EC the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 5.1% going in: 22.8% after a win, 2.4% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 5.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Novorizontino v Fortaleza EC has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 51% / 26% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 53% / 26% / 21%: the biggest move is Novorizontino's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Novorizontino win53%▲ +2
  2. Draw26%=
  3. Fortaleza EC win21%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.