8 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag Eredivisie prediction & result

AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
Full time2 – 0

Final score: AZ Alkmaar 2-0 ADO Den Haag.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% AZ Alkmaar, 24% draw, 35% ADO Den Haag — fair odds of 2.44, 4.17 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AZ Alkmaar at 41% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AZ Alkmaar99%Draw1%ADO Den Haag0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Elijah Dijkstra
23'
🔁Weslley Patatiout: C. Stengs
57'
🔁M. Meerdinkout: T. Parrott
57'
57'
🔁F. de Bruinout: M. Jimenez
57'
🔁J. Hawkinsout: I. de Ruijter
⚽R. Daal
61'
64'
🔁D. van Mieghemout: N. Thomas
64'
🔁E. Rottierout: J. Bal
⚽C. Stengsassist: K. Smit
68'
🔁K. Smitout: H. de Wit
72'
🔁M. Chavez Garciaout: M. de Wit
73'
74'
Juho Kilo
🔁R. Daalout: A. Oufkir
81'
85'
🔁P. Mulderout: L. Wilhelm

Match stats — AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag

54%Possession46%
12Shots10
4On target1
9Corners7
2.67xG0.95

Goals against chances

AZ Alkmaar2 from 2.67 xGless than the chances were worth
ADO Den Haag0 from 0.95 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AZ Alkmaar 4-2-3-1
  • 28J. De BusserG
  • 22E. DijkstraD
  • 3W. GoesD
  • 16L. SchoutenD
  • 15M. Chavez GarciaD
  • 21D. KwakmanM
  • 6P. KoopmeinersM
  • 7Weslley PatatiM
  • 10K. SmitM
  • 11R. DaalM
  • 35M. MeerdinkF
Substitutes
  • 1R. Owusu-OduroG
  • 2S. MaikumaD
  • 18R. IchiharaD
  • 23B. van DuijlD
  • 24A. OufkirF
  • 75H. de WitM
  • 34M. de WitD
  • 14C. StengsM
  • 9T. ParrottF
Coach: Leeroy Echteld
ADO Den Haag 4-4-2
  • 1K. NikiemaG
  • 15M. HokkeD
  • 3P. MulderD
  • 4M. WaemD
  • 18S. SyllaD
  • 7D. van MieghemM
  • 16F. de Bruin
  • 25J. KiloM
  • 17J. HawkinsM
  • 11E. RottierF
  • 46Y. EduardoF
Substitutes
  • 20C. KramerG
  • 12S. EekhoutG
  • 27N. ThomasF
  • 8J. ZamburekM
  • 22L. WilhelmD
  • 35S. BergtopD
  • 14M. JimenezM
  • 19L. ReischlF
  • 9J. Bal
Coach: Robin Peter

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2AZ Alkmaar6510176+1116
18ADO Den Haag6015616-101

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag

  • 8 August 2026AZ Alkmaar 2–0 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
  • 16 January 2021AZ Alkmaar 2–1 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
  • 25 October 2020ADO Den Haag 2–2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
  • 29 August 2020ADO Den Haag 1–0 AZ AlkmaarFriendlies Clubs
  • 7 March 2020AZ Alkmaar 4–0 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
  • 22 September 2019ADO Den Haag 0–1 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie

Leading scorers: AZ Alkmaar and ADO Den Haag

AZ Alkmaar

  • R. Daal4 goals

ADO Den Haag

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.