8 August 2026, 16:45 UTC

GO Ahead Eagles vs Willem II Eredivisie prediction & result

De Adelaarshorst, Deventer
Full time4 – 1

Final score: GO Ahead Eagles 4-1 Willem II.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% GO Ahead Eagles, 23% draw, 38% Willem II — fair odds of 2.56, 4.35 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts GO Ahead Eagles at 39% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1772 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

GO Ahead Eagles99%Draw1%Willem II0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
⚽D. Haenassist: N. Tjoe a On
Dean James
19'
⚽S. Tengstedtassist: M. Meulensteen
30'
Julius Dirksen
34'
⚽M. Meulensteenassist: M. Suray
61'
🔁S. I. Sigurdarsonout: E. Flataker
62'
⚽E. Flatakerassist: V. Edvardsen
63'
68'
🔁T. Didillon Hodlout: W. van der Steen
68'
🔁P. van Loonout: A. Et Taibi
⚽J. Dirksenassist: M. Suray
69'
🔁D. Jamesout: T. Baeten
75'
🔁M. Meulensteenout: C. Twigt
75'
🔁J. Dirksenout: G. van Zwam
75'
76'
🔁E. Gurbuzout: M. Lemmens
🔁M. Surayout: R. Margaret
83'
90+1'
Ismael Mouhoul
90'
🔁K. Boogaardout: J. van Esdonk
90'
🔁J. Sloryout: I. Mouhoul

Match stats — GO Ahead Eagles vs Willem II

69%Possession31%
20Shots13
10On target1
6Corners2
2.35xG1.46

Goals against chances

GO Ahead Eagles4 from 2.35 xGmore than the chances were worth
Willem II1 from 1.46 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

GO Ahead Eagles 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. HaugG
  • 2A. SampstedD
  • 26J. DirksenD
  • 4J. KramerD
  • 5D. JamesD
  • 8E. LinthorstM
  • 21M. MeulensteenM
  • 10S. TengstedtM
  • 16V. EdvardsenM
  • 17M. SurayM
  • 9S. I. SigurdarsonF
Substitutes
  • 22N. MarsmanG
  • 33N. VerdoniG
  • 18R. MargaretF
  • 23T. BaetenF
  • 6C. TwigtM
  • 29E. FlatakerF
  • 25G. van ZwamD
  • 20E. WaayersD
  • 34Y. Salah RahmouniM
Coach: Melvin Boel
Willem II 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. Didillon HodlG
  • 22P. van LoonD
  • 3F. StamD
  • 4J. HoogmaD
  • 24N. Tjoe a OnD
  • 2A. CiranniM
  • 8K. BoogaardM
  • 50E. GurbuzM
  • 19U. van AalstM
  • 7J. SloryM
  • 9D. HaenF
Substitutes
  • 21W. van der SteenG
  • 31K. de Leeuw
  • 15A. Et TaibiD
  • 45S. Wermenbol
  • 48J. van EsdonkM
  • 28T. VerheydtF
  • 83M. LemmensD
  • 14J. MathijsenD
  • 40D. Iglesias
Coach: John Stegeman

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8GO Ahead Eagles62311513+29
17Willem II6024619-132

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: GO Ahead Eagles vs Willem II

  • 8 August 2026GO Ahead Eagles 4–1 Willem IIEredivisie
  • 16 March 2025GO Ahead Eagles 1–0 Willem IIEredivisie
  • 18 August 2024Willem II 2–0 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
  • 8 April 2022GO Ahead Eagles 4–0 Willem IIEredivisie
  • 27 November 2021Willem II 0–1 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie

Leading scorers: GO Ahead Eagles and Willem II

GO Ahead Eagles

  • S. Tengstedt5 goals2 assists
  • V. Edvardsen3 goals2 assists

Willem II

  • D. Haen3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.