NEC Nijmegen vs Telstar Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Telstar.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% NEC Nijmegen, 21% draw, 21% Telstar — fair odds of 1.72, 4.76 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NEC Nijmegen at 58% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — NEC Nijmegen vs Telstar
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Gonzalo CrettazG
- 2Brayann PereiraD
- 6Darko NejašmićD
- 24Deveron FonvilleD
- 25Sami OuaissaM
- 35Jamiro MonteiroM
- 8Isak Hansen AarøenM
- 99Clement BischoffM
- 9Tjaronn CheryF
- 20Noe LebretonF
- 10Dušan TadićF
- 14Kaj SierhuisF
- 3Philippe SandlerD
- 11Willum Thor WillumssonM
- 30Bryan LinssenF
- 7Emre MorF
- 36Freek EntiusG
- 38Joep GenesteG
- 21Tobias StormD
- 5Thomas OuwejanD
- 1Ronald Koeman JrG
- 3Gerald AldersD
- 4Abdelnour SoualhiaD
- 43Marvin PeersmanD
- 2Jeff HardeveldD
- 17Nils RossenM
- 10Tyrone OwusuM
- 7Rui MendesM
- 27Patrick BrouwerM
- 11Soufiane HetliM
- 9Jelani SeedorfF
- 8Emirhan DemircanF
- 5Prince AningM
- 6Isaiah AhmedM
- 23Noach ShenkmanM
- 18Gabi CaschiliD
- 20Daan ReizigerG
- 13Finn MulderG
- 15Nigel Ogidi NwankwoD
- 28Rojendro OudstenD
Form going into NEC Nijmegen vs Telstar
NEC Nijmegen
- D0-0away to Olympiakos Piraeus4 August 2026
Telstar
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | NEC Nijmegen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Telstar | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: NEC Nijmegen vs Telstar
- 8 August 2026NEC Nijmegen 1–2 TelstarEredivisie
- 2 May 2026NEC Nijmegen 1–1 TelstarEredivisie
- 13 December 2025Telstar 2–2 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 5 April 2021NEC Nijmegen 1–1 TelstarEerste Divisie
- 3 January 2021Telstar 5–2 NEC NijmegenEerste Divisie
- 7 February 2020Telstar 1–7 NEC NijmegenEerste Divisie