8 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

PSV Eindhoven vs Fortuna Sittard Eredivisie prediction & result

Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
Full time2 – 2

Final score: PSV Eindhoven 2-2 Fortuna Sittard.

Before kick-off the model made it 84% PSV Eindhoven, 10% draw, 6% Fortuna Sittard — fair odds of 1.19, 10.00 and 16.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts PSV Eindhoven at 84% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

PSV Eindhoven98%Draw2%Fortuna Sittard0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

33'
Lequincio Zeefuik
42'
⚽O. ter Haar Romeny
🔁R. van Bommelout: A. Bouhamdi
46'
⚽R. Flamingoassist: I. Perisic
55'
61'
🔁L. Zeefuikout: E. Michut
🔁G. Tilout: A. Plea
68'
🔁S. Mijnansout: D. Man
69'
⚽N. Fernandezassist: A. Plea
74'
Dennis Man
78'
78'
🔁S. van Otteleout: A. Descotte
79'
🔁P. Brittijnout: N. de Groot
🔁R. Pepiout: K. Sildillia
80'
87'
🔁Y. Oukiliout: M. Gbemou
87'
🔁J. Dahlhausout: G. Buyukhan
90'
⚽E. Michut

Match stats — PSV Eindhoven vs Fortuna Sittard

76%Possession24%
21Shots8
6On target6
9Corners0
2.3xG1.01

Goals against chances

PSV Eindhoven2 from 2.30 xGabout what the chances were worth
Fortuna Sittard2 from 1.01 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

PSV Eindhoven 4-2-3-1
  • 32M. KovarG
  • 5I. PerisicD
  • 6R. FlamingoD
  • 4A. ObispoD
  • 17Mauro JuniorD
  • 10P. WannerM
  • 31N. FernandezM
  • 20G. TilM
  • 21S. MijnansM
  • 7R. van BommelM
  • 9R. PepiF
Substitutes
  • 1N. OlijG
  • 51T. SmolenaarsG
  • 27D. ManF
  • 25K. SildilliaD
  • 19E. BajraktarevicF
  • 3Y. GasiorowskiD
  • 33E. BasseyD
  • 14A. PleaF
  • 35J. van den BergM
Coach: Peter Bosz
Fortuna Sittard 5-3-2
  • 31M. BranderhorstG
  • 2S. WylinD
  • 12I. PintoD
  • 6S. van OtteleD
  • 28J. HubnerD
  • 8J. DahlhausD
  • 52M. IhattarenM
  • 23P. BrittijnM
  • 5Y. OukiliM
  • 25L. ZeefuikF
  • 10O. ter Haar RomenyF
Substitutes
  • 33KaylenG
  • 1L. KoopmansG
  • 9A. DescotteF
  • 20E. MichutM
  • 15N. de GrootD
  • 38M. GbemouM
  • 39G. BuyukhanM
  • 35K. van BurgstedenM
Coach: Danny Buijs

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1PSV Eindhoven6510227+1516
7Fortuna Sittard63121214-210

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: PSV Eindhoven vs Fortuna Sittard

  • 8 August 2026PSV Eindhoven 2–2 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
  • 17 January 2026Fortuna Sittard 1–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
  • 31 October 2025PSV Eindhoven 5–2 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
  • 3 May 2025PSV Eindhoven 4–1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
  • 22 September 2024Fortuna Sittard 1–3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
  • 12 May 2024Fortuna Sittard 1–1 PSV EindhovenEredivisie

Leading scorers: PSV Eindhoven and Fortuna Sittard

PSV Eindhoven

  • S. Mijnans4 goals1 assists

Fortuna Sittard

  • M. Ihattaren3 goals2 assists
  • L. Zeefuik3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.