8 November 2026, 16:15 UTC

Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest
Referee: Jeremy Stinat
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Lyon.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Stade Brestois 29, 27% draw, 39% Lyon — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lyon at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Stade Brestois 2996%Draw4%Lyon0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Noah Edjoumaassist: Kamory Doumbia
22'
55'
Corentin Tolisso
58'
🔁Noah Teye Narteyout: Mads Bidstrup
62'
•Kail Boudache
63'
Kail Boudache
🔁Mama Baldéout: Pathé Mboup
66'
🔁Noah Edjoumaout: Giovani Versini
67'
67'
🔁Kail Boudacheout: Ernest Nuamah
67'
🔁Nicolás Tagliaficoout: Abner Vinicius
🔁Kamory Doumbiaout: Mamady Diambou
73'
78'
🔁Keito Nakamuraout: Julien Duranville
79'
🔁Khalis Merahout: Alejandro Gomes Rodríguez
Ludovic Ajorque
90'
⚽Ludovic Ajorque (pen)
90+4'

Match stats — Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon

31%Possession69%
13Shots10
6On target2
1Corners8
1.98xG0.72

Goals against chances

Stade Brestois 292 from 1.98 xGabout what the chances were worth
Lyon0 from 0.72 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Stade Brestois 29 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. SelvikG
  • 70K. LalaD
  • 29L. TousartD
  • 4G. LlorisD
  • 2B. LockoD
  • 13J. ChotardM
  • 8H. MagnettiM
  • 11N. EdjoumaM
  • 23K. DoumbiaM
  • 17Mama BaldéM
  • 19L. AjorqueF
Substitutes
  • 18J. BourgaultD
  • 6M. DiambouM
  • 21Ibrahim Yayiya KanteF
  • 9P. MboupF
  • 39D. N´GuessanF
  • 7J. Nonge BoendeM
  • 30M. PatouilletG
  • 10G. VersiniF
  • 20L. ZogbeD
Coach: Julien Lachuer
Lyon 4-3-3
  • 1D. GreifG
  • 13Z. AthekameD
  • 21R. KluivertD
  • 19M. NiakhatéD
  • 3N. TagliaficoD
  • 99N. NarteyM
  • 6T. TessmannM
  • 8C. TolissoM
  • 26K. BoudacheF
  • 18K. MerahF
  • 11Keito NakamuraF
Substitutes
  • 24J. DuranvilleF
  • 32Alejandro Gomes RodriguezF
  • 85N. KamaraD
  • 22Clinton MataD
  • 7E. NuamahF
  • 40R. DescampsG
  • 2M. BidstrupM
  • 20F. BacherD
  • 16AbnerD
Coach: Jorge Maciel

Form going into Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon

Stade Brestois 29

Ligue 1

  • W2-0away to Lorient2 November 2026
  • L1-2Nice23 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Lille17 October 2026
  • W5-1Angers10 October 2026

Lyon

Ligue 1

  • W2-0Angers1 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Paris Saint Germain26 October 2026
  • W2-1Nice18 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Lens9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Stade Brestois 29 scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Stade Brestois 29 conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for Stade Brestois 29.
  • Lyon scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Lyon conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Stade Brestois 29104331812+615
5Lyon10523159+617

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon

  • 18 January 2026Lyon 2–1 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
  • 2 November 2025Stade Brestois 29 0–0 LyonLigue 1
  • 2 March 2025Lyon 2–1 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
  • 11 January 2025Stade Brestois 29 2–1 LyonLigue 1
  • 14 April 2024Lyon 4–3 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
  • 23 September 2023Stade Brestois 29 1–0 LyonLigue 1

The full Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon record →

Leading scorers: Stade Brestois 29 and Lyon

Stade Brestois 29

GoalsAssists

  • L. Ajorque51
  • K. Doumbia42

Lyon

GoalsAssists

  • E. Nuamah41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Stade Brestois 29 beat Lyon 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Lyon at 39% and given a win for Stade Brestois 29 34%. The goals: Noah Edjouma 22' for Stade Brestois 29, Ludovic Ajorque (penalty) 90+4' for Stade Brestois 29. On expected goals it finished 1.98–0.72.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lyon a 25.7% chance to finish in the top three: 30.9% after a win, 22.8% after a draw, 20.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.6%, 5.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Stade Brestois 29 v Lyon has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 31% / 27% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 34% / 27% / 39%: the biggest move is Stade Brestois 29's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Stade Brestois 29 win34%▲ +3
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Lyon win39%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.