1 November 2026, 14:30 UTC

Baltika vs Akron Premier League prediction & result

Rostec Arena, Kaliningrad
Referee: Kirill Levnikov
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Baltika 2-1 Akron.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Baltika, 26% draw, 21% Akron — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Baltika at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Baltika97%Draw3%Akron0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Andrey Mendelout: Ivan Belikov
45'
🔁Maksim Petrovout: Vladislav Pospelov
45'
⚽Brayan Gil
52'
54'
⚽Artem Shumanskiyassist: Slobodan Tedić
Mingiyan Beveev
58'
58'
Karlen Hovhannisyan
🔁Mingiyan Beveevout: Fahd Moufi
61'
⚽Ivan Belikov
68'
71'
🔁Dmitriy Pestryakovout: Maksim Boldyrev
🔁Brayan Gilout: Egor Golenkov
72'
Ivan Belikov
77'
80'
🔁Karlen Hovhannisyanout: Nikita Bazilevskiy
80'
🔁Konstantin Maradishviliout: Artem Sidorenko
🔁Eldar Ćivićout: Mikhail Ryadno
85'
89'
🔁Khetag Khosonovout: Dudu Rodrigues
Fahd Moufi
90+2'

Match stats — Baltika vs Akron

40%Possession60%
17Shots12
8On target2
6Corners4
1.63xG0.87

Goals against chances

Baltika2 from 1.63 xGabout what the chances were worth
Akron1 from 0.87 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Baltika 5-4-1
  • 1E. LatyshonokG
  • 22M. BeveevD
  • 21E. AndersonD
  • 24L. MouyokoloD
  • 4N. GassamaD
  • 77E. ĆivićD
  • 73M. PetrovM
  • 10I. PetrovM
  • 8A. MendelM
  • 7K. ShiltsovM
  • 91B. GilF
Substitutes
  • 18F. MoufiD
  • 44E. LyubakovG
  • 14S. KovačM
  • 3I. KirschD
  • 5A. MouridM
  • 69E. GolenkovF
  • 26I. BelikovM
  • 9C. OfforF
  • 11I. PorokhovF
Coach: A. Talalaev
Akron 4-3-3
  • 88V. GudievG
  • 24I. NedelcearuD
  • 26João EscovalD
  • 19M. BokoevD
  • 21R. FernándezD
  • 6K. HovhannisyanM
  • 22K. MaradishviliM
  • 80K. KhosonovM
  • 71D. PestryakovF
  • 9S. TedićF
  • 99A. ShumanskiyF
Substitutes
  • 32I. TerekhovskiyG
  • 2Y. RochaD
  • 89D. PopenkovM
  • 11DuduF
  • 69A. DmitrievF
  • 5Aleksa Đurasović IM
  • 91M. BoldyrevM
  • 81N. BazilevskiyM
  • 10Kevin ArevaloM
Coach: S. Blagojević

Form going into Baltika vs Akron

Baltika

Premier League

  • D1-1away to FC Krasnodar24 October 2026
  • D0-0FC Rostov18 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Akhmat11 October 2026

Akron

Premier League

  • W3-1Dynamo24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Dinamo Makhachkala17 October 2026
  • L0-1away to FC Rostov9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Baltika144551715+217
14Akron142661725-812

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Baltika vs Akron

  • 26 June 2026Akron 0–1 BaltikaFriendlies Clubs
  • 27 April 2026Baltika 0–1 AkronPremier League
  • 1 October 2025Baltika 3–0 AkronCup
  • 31 August 2025Akron 0–2 BaltikaPremier League
  • 29 July 2025Akron 2–1 BaltikaCup
  • 3 February 2024Baltika 5–3 AkronFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Baltika and Akron

Baltika

GoalsAssists

  • B. Gil51

Akron

GoalsAssists

  • Gilson Benchimol42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Baltika beat Akron 2–1. The model had made a win for Baltika its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Brayan Gil 52' for Baltika, Artem Shumanskiy 54' for Akron, Ivan Belikov 68' for Baltika. On expected goals it finished 1.63–0.87.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Baltika a 9.8% chance to finish in the top four: 11.7% after a win, 6.5% after a draw, 4.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.7%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.

For Akron the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 46.3% going in: 33.4% after a win, 44.1% after a draw, 50.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.7%, 4.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Baltika v Akron has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 56% / 25% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 53% / 26% / 21%: the biggest move is Baltika's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Baltika win53%▼ −3
  2. Draw26%▲ +1
  3. Akron win21%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.