Puskas Academy vs Debreceni VSC NB I prediction & result
Final score: Puskas Academy 1-3 Debreceni VSC.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Puskas Academy, 28% draw, 32% Debreceni VSC — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Puskas Academy at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Puskas Academy vs Debreceni VSC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 72B. LehoczkiG
- 96R. OrjánD
- 14W. GollaD
- 21G. HarutyunyanD
- 33B. Ormonde-OttewillD
- 8D. LukacsM
- 74M. KernM
- 6L. DuarteM
- 25Z. NagyM
- 90A. NémethF
- 10P. DárdaiF
- 9L. ColleyF
- 1T. MarkekG
- 77K. MondovicsF
- 16U. NissiläM
- 4Michael OkekeM
- 24B. PálD
- 20M. SoisaloF
- 18B. VekonyM
- 61M. BozoG
- 1P. AndreevG
- 4J. MejíasD
- 28M. HofmannD
- 26Á. LangD
- 3Adrián GuerreroD
- 16Sergi SamperM
- 6B. BoškovićM
- 24I. EgriM
- 10B. DzsudzsákM
- 97C. DenesM
- 11Á. SzendreiF
- 19D. KocsisM
- 89D. PóserG
- 66J. JannehM
- 12B. ErdélyiG
- 96J. DacostaD
- 99F. CiblaM
- 72R. KellerD
- 5B. BatikD
- 25S. BaldoniF
Form going into Puskas Academy vs Debreceni VSC
Puskas Academy
NB I
- L1-2Nyiregyhaza25 October 2026
- W1-0away to Ujpest17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Gyori ETO FC11 October 2026
Debreceni VSC
NB I
- W2-0away to Budapest Honved24 October 2026
- W3-0Zalaegerszegi TE18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ferencvarosi TC10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Puskas Academy | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 24 |
| 4 | Debreceni VSC | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Puskas Academy vs Debreceni VSC
- 26 July 2026Debreceni VSC 0–2 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 22 March 2026Puskas Academy 1–1 Debreceni VSCNB I
- 6 December 2025Debreceni VSC 0–1 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 22 August 2025Puskas Academy 1–3 Debreceni VSCNB I
- 10 May 2025Puskas Academy 4–2 Debreceni VSCNB I
- 15 February 2025Debreceni VSC 1–2 Puskas AcademyNB I
Leading scorers: Puskas Academy and Debreceni VSC
Puskas Academy
GoalsAssists
- A. Németh52
- P. Dárdai32
Debreceni VSC
GoalsAssists
- Á. Szendrei62
- B. Dzsudzsák42
- C. Denes33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Debreceni VSC won 3–1 at Puskas Academy. The model had leaned towards a win for Puskas Academy at 40% and given a win for Debreceni VSC 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: blaz boskovic 7' for Debreceni VSC, András Németh 38' for Puskas Academy, Bence Batik 85' for Debreceni VSC, Sohan Baldoni 90+1' for Debreceni VSC. Sent off: Brandon Ormonde-Ottewill (Puskas Academy) 74'. On expected goals it finished 1.16–2.14.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Puskas Academy a 41.0% chance to finish in the top three: 48.2% after a win, 38.9% after a draw, 33.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.2%, 7.8 points lower than before the match.
For Debreceni VSC the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 25.9% going in: 33.4% after a win, 24.5% after a draw, 20.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.4%, 7.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our NB I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Puskas Academy v Debreceni VSC has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 40% / 28% / 32%: the biggest move is Puskas Academy's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Puskas Academy win40%▼ −5
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Debreceni VSC win32%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.