Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Rostov Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Dinamo Makhachkala 0-3 FC Rostov.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Dinamo Makhachkala, 30% draw, 33% FC Rostov — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Russian Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Dinamo Makhachkala at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Rostov
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33N. KarabashevG
- 77T. SundukovD
- 19K. ZinovichD
- 24A. AlarcónD
- 23M. MakhamadjonovD
- 16H. MrezigueM
- 14D. KuzyaevM
- 47N. GlushkovM
- 10M. HosseinnezhadM
- 88D. LesovoyM
- 25G. AgalarovF
- 43I. AkhmedovD
- 9R. MagomedovM
- 6M. ApshatsevM
- 21Abdulpasha DzhabrailovM
- 13S. KagermazovD
- 8V. KhubulovM
- 4I. ShumakhovD
- 28S. SerderovF
- 72A. SandrachukD
- 84A. PetrovG
- 4V. MelekhinD
- 3O. SakoD
- 40Ygor NogueiraD
- 87A. LangovichD
- 8A. MironovM
- 27D. ProkhinM
- 18K. KuchaevM
- 7RonaldoF
- 99T. SuleymanovF
- 6O. OlusegunF
- 26D. KhlusevichD
- 1R. YatimovG
- 13D. TitovM
- 21D. ShantaliyM
- 91Anton ShamoninF
- 22D. SemenchukD
- 5Y. MikhaylovM
- 10I. KomarovM
- 34D. GolikovG
Form going into Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Rostov
Dinamo Makhachkala
Premier League
- L0-2away to Zenit25 October 2026
- D1-1Akron17 October 2026
- L0-4away to FC Orenburg10 October 2026
FC Rostov
Premier League
- W2-0Lokomotiv25 October 2026
- D0-0away to Baltika18 October 2026
- W1-0Akron9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Russia Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 16 |
| 6 | FC Rostov | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Rostov
- 2 May 2026Dinamo Makhachkala 1–2 FC RostovPremier League
- 4 March 2026FC Rostov 0–2 Dinamo MakhachkalaCup
- 25 October 2025FC Rostov 1–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
- 2 October 2025Dinamo Makhachkala 1–1 FC RostovCup
- 27 August 2025FC Rostov 1–3 Dinamo MakhachkalaCup
- 9 July 2025FC Rostov 2–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Rostov
Dinamo Makhachkala
GoalsAssists
- G. Agalarov50
FC Rostov
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Rostov won 3–0 at Dinamo Makhachkala. The model had leaned towards a win for Dinamo Makhachkala at 37% and given a win for FC Rostov 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Aleksey Mironov 30' for FC Rostov, Konstantin Kuchaev 40' for FC Rostov, Ronaldo 69' for FC Rostov. Sent off: Makhmud Makhamadzhonov (Dinamo Makhachkala) 14'. On expected goals it finished 0.72–0.54.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dinamo Makhachkala a 42.8% chance to finish in the bottom four: 33.6% after a win, 44.9% after a draw, 52.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 52.9%, 10.1 points higher than before the match.
For FC Rostov the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 24.2% going in: 15.1% after a win, 24.1% after a draw, 29.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.1%, 9.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Dinamo Makhachkala v FC Rostov has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 37% / 30% / 33%: the biggest move is Dinamo Makhachkala's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Dinamo Makhachkala win37%▼ −3
- Draw30%▲ +1
- FC Rostov win33%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.