Amed vs Eyüpspor Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Amed 5-1 Eyüpspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 76% Amed, 15% draw, 9% Eyüpspor — fair odds of 1.32, 6.67 and 11.11.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Amed at 76%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Amed vs Eyüpspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40Alban LafontG
- 7Ermal KrasniqiD
- 21Mehmet YeşilD
- 4David Robert BatesD
- 17Umut MeraşD
- 22Rayan RavelosonM
- 8Furkan SoyalpM
- 93Rayan LutinM
- 91Dia SabaM
- 10Samuel BalletM
- 99Gift OrbanF
- 81Ali Turap BülbülD
- 18Gökhan GülM
- 11Yira Collins SorF
- 74Mohamed KhalilM
- 47Kahraman DemirtaşD
- 27Burak BozanG
- 3Miraç AcerD
- 33Amadou CisséD
- 6Cem ÜstündagM
- 1Emre BilginG
- 7Talha ÜlvanD
- 5Jawad El YamiqD
- 33Zak JulesD
- 70Mete DemirD
- 88Chandrel MassangaM
- 98Bilal BoutobbaM
- 8David CostaM
- 15Charles-Andre Raux YaoM
- 11Lenny PintorM
- 9Yusuf BarasıF
- 18Hamza AkmanM
- 29Ahmed AbdullahiF
- 77Konrad MichalakF
- 10Abdelhamid SabiriM
- 3Arda YavuzD
- 31Horațiu MoldovanG
- 23Umut KeseciG
- 4Seyfettin Anıl YaşarD
- 42Berhan SatliD
Form going into Amed vs Eyüpspor
Amed
Süper Lig
- W2-1away to Samsunspor24 October 2026
- W1-0Konyaspor17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.10 October 2026
Eyüpspor
Süper Lig
- L0-1Kasımpaşa24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Erzurumspor FK17 October 2026
- L0-4Göztepe12 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Amed | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 15 | +13 | 23 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 30 | -27 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Amed vs Eyüpspor
- 23 March 2019Eyüpspor 3–1 Amed2. Lig
- 4 November 2018Amed 1–1 Eyüpspor2. Lig
Leading scorers: Amed and Eyüpspor
Amed
GoalsAssists
- G. Orban104
- D. Sabia61
- S. Ballet41
Eyüpspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Amed beat Eyüpspor 5–1. The model had made a win for Amed its most likely outcome, at 76%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: E. Krasniqi 13' for Amed, G. Orban 35' for Amed, S. Ballet 42' for Amed, S. Ballet 51' for Amed, A. Abdullahi 73' for Eyüpspor, S. Ballet (penalty) 83' for Amed. Sent off: S. Ballet (Amed) 90+1'. On expected goals it finished 4.95–0.98.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Amed a 55.6% chance to finish in the top four: 57.3% after a win, 50.2% after a draw, 44.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 57.3%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.
For Eyüpspor the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 95.4% going in: 91.7% after a win, 94.7% after a draw, 95.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 95.8%.
Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.