1 November 2026, 17:15 UTC

Ujpest vs Nyiregyhaza NB I prediction & result

Szusza Ferenc Stadion, Budapest
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Ujpest 2-1 Nyiregyhaza.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Ujpest, 24% draw, 27% Nyiregyhaza — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ujpest at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ujpest96%Draw4%Nyiregyhaza0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
⚽Balint Katonaassist: Marko Kvasina
25'
•Marko Kvasina
⚽Ábel Krajcsovicsassist: Etienne Amenyido
39'
43'
Milan Kovacs
⚽Etienne Amenyido
58'
62'
🔁Balint Katonaout: batoum
62'
🔁Zsombor Hösout: Csaba Máté
🔁Mario Zekeout: Tizian Valentino Scharmer
66'
🔁Etienne Amenyidoout: Krisztofer Horvath
67'
🔁Matija Ljujicout: Arne Maier
67'
67'
Balázs Manner
🔁Ábel Krajcsovicsout: Miron Mate Mucsanyi
73'
Tizian Valentino Scharmer
82'
83'
🔁György Tomaout: Marko Regža
83'
🔁Rocco Žikovićout: A. Temesvári
🔁Heitor Marinho dos Santosout: João Nunes
83'

Match stats — Ujpest vs Nyiregyhaza

53%Possession47%
25Shots15
10On target5
11Corners0
2.48xG1.88

Goals against chances

Ujpest2 from 2.48 xGabout what the chances were worth
Nyiregyhaza1 from 1.88 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ujpest 4-4-2
  • 1P. SzappanosG
  • 36Ferenc UjvaryD
  • 3HeitorD
  • 94P. StronatiD
  • 20M. ZekeD
  • 39G. VlijterM
  • 88M. LjujićM
  • 8N. SzendreiM
  • 27Á. KrajcsovicsM
  • 17A. MatkoF
  • 14E. AmenyidoF
Substitutes
  • 45A. AdemiM
  • 23D. BanaiG
  • 2J. BodnárD
  • 5A. FiolaD
  • 11K. HorváthM
  • 10A. MaierM
  • 15M. MátéM
  • 30João NunesD
  • 21T. ScharmerM
Coach: Z. Szélesi
Nyiregyhaza 4-4-2
  • 57M. DalaG
  • 24V. JovanovD
  • 39R. ŽikovićD
  • 31L. KatonaD
  • 70M. KatonaD
  • 10B. MannerM
  • 12M. KovácsM
  • 8Zsombor HosM
  • 6Y. TomaM
  • 55B. KatonaF
  • 9M. KvasinaF
Substitutes
  • 15A. TemesváriD
  • 21Z. VukkM
  • 26Ž. MedvedF
  • 25S. IngolitschD
  • 66B. BenczenleitnerD
  • 29J. BatoumF
  • 99Á. AlaxaiD
  • 22M. MolnarG
  • 17C. MateM
Coach: Tamás Bódog

Form going into Ujpest vs Nyiregyhaza

Ujpest

NB I

  • L0-1away to Gyori ETO FC24 October 2026
  • L0-1Puskas Academy17 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Budapest Honved11 October 2026

Nyiregyhaza

NB I

  • W2-1away to Puskas Academy25 October 2026
  • L0-1Budapest Honved17 October 2026
  • L1-5away to Zalaegerszegi TE11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

NB I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Ujpest135352120+118
12Nyiregyhaza133371424-1012

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ujpest vs Nyiregyhaza

  • 24 July 2026Nyiregyhaza 2–1 UjpestNB I
  • 17 April 2026Ujpest 7–2 NyiregyhazaNB I
  • 24 January 2026Nyiregyhaza 1–1 UjpestNB I
  • 26 September 2025Ujpest 2–2 NyiregyhazaNB I
  • 16 May 2025Ujpest 2–2 NyiregyhazaNB I
  • 22 February 2025Nyiregyhaza 0–0 UjpestNB I

Leading scorers: Ujpest and Nyiregyhaza

Ujpest

GoalsAssists

  • A. Matko63
  • E. Amenyido45
  • G. Vlijter32

Nyiregyhaza

GoalsAssists

  • M. Kvasina41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ujpest beat Nyiregyhaza 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Ujpest at 49%. The goals: Balint Katona 23' for Nyiregyhaza, Ábel Krajcsovics 39' for Ujpest, Etienne Amenyido 58' for Ujpest. On expected goals it finished 2.48–1.88.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ujpest a 8.2% chance to finish in the bottom two: 5.1% after a win, 8.4% after a draw, 12.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.1%, 3.1 points lower than before the match.

For Nyiregyhaza the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 47.5% going in: 38.1% after a win, 46.7% after a draw, 51.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 51.5%, 4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our NB I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Ujpest v Nyiregyhaza has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 52% / 23% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 49% / 24% / 27%: the biggest move is Ujpest's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Ujpest win49%▼ −3
  2. Draw24%▲ +1
  3. Nyiregyhaza win27%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.