1 November 2026, 16:45 UTC

Lokomotiv vs Spartak Moscow Premier League prediction & result

RZD Arena, Moscow
Referee: Artem Chistyakov
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Lokomotiv 0-4 Spartak Moscow.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Lokomotiv, 27% draw, 37% Spartak Moscow — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Spartak Moscow at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽Aleksandr Rudenko (OG)
30'
🔁Igor Dmitrievout: Victor Parada
33'
⚽Victor Paradaassist: Gedson Fernandes
45'
⚽Manfred Ugaldeassist: Ruslan Litvinov
🔁Zelimkhan Bakaevout: Aleksandr Kovalenko
45'
🔁Aleksandr Rudenkoout: Sergey Pinyaev
55'
72'
🔁Roman Zobninout: Danil Prutsev
72'
🔁Pablo Solariout: Marquinhos
73'
🔁Manfred Ugaldeout: Mirlind Daku
76'
⚽Esequiel Barco (pen)
77'
🔁Ruslan Litvinovout: Daniil Denisov
🔁Andrey Mostovoyout: Vadim Rakov
80'
🔁Sergey Babkinout: Mikhail Shchetinin
80'
Mikhail Shchetinin
84'
Vadim Rakov
86'
Nikolay Komlichenko
90'
90'
Nail Umyarov

Match stats — Lokomotiv vs Spartak Moscow

44%Possession56%
14Shots19
4On target9
5Corners6
1.03xG2.63

Goals against chances

Lokomotiv0 from 1.03 xGless than the chances were worth
Spartak Moscow4 from 2.63 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lokomotiv 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. MitryushkinG
  • 24M. NenakhovD
  • 85E. MorozovD
  • 45A. SiljanovD
  • 47D. GodyaevD
  • 18N. TitkovM
  • 6S. BabkinM
  • 7Z. BakaevM
  • 77A. MostovoyM
  • 19A. RudenkoM
  • 27N. KomlichenkoF
Substitutes
  • 14G. DzhikiyaD
  • 74D. ChevardinD
  • 75I. EremeevM
  • 8A. KovalenkoM
  • 22I. LantratovG
  • 3Lucas FassonD
  • 99R. MyalkovskiyF
  • 5G. NyamsiD
  • 9S. PinyaevM
Coach: M. Galaktionov
Spartak Moscow 4-1-4-1
  • 98A. MaksimenkoG
  • 47R. ZobninD
  • 3C. WoohD
  • 6S. BabićD
  • 27I. DmitrievD
  • 18N. UmyarovM
  • 7P. SolariM
  • 83Gedson FernandesM
  • 68R. LitvinovM
  • 5E. BarcoM
  • 9M. UgaldeF
Substitutes
  • 40I. SorokinM
  • 17V. SausM
  • 25D. PrutsevM
  • 1I. PomazunG
  • 62P. PolekhF
  • 33Víctor ParadaD
  • 24Nikita MassalygaM
  • 10MarquinhosF
  • 56A. DovbnyaG
Coach: Carcedo

Form going into Lokomotiv vs Spartak Moscow

Lokomotiv

Premier League

  • L0-2away to FC Rostov25 October 2026
  • D3-3FC Krasnodar17 October 2026
  • W5-0away to Fakel10 October 2026

Spartak Moscow

Premier League

  • L0-2away to CSKA Moscow25 October 2026
  • W4-0Rubin18 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Krylia Sovetov10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Lokomotiv142571621-511
3Spartak Moscow149232711+1629

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lokomotiv vs Spartak Moscow

  • 11 July 2026Lokomotiv 2–0 Spartak MoscowFriendlies Clubs
  • 5 April 2026Spartak Moscow 2–1 LokomotivPremier League
  • 26 November 2025Lokomotiv 2–3 Spartak MoscowCup
  • 6 November 2025Spartak Moscow 3–1 LokomotivCup
  • 9 August 2025Lokomotiv 4–2 Spartak MoscowPremier League
  • 23 November 2024Spartak Moscow 5–2 LokomotivPremier League

Leading scorers: Lokomotiv and Spartak Moscow

Lokomotiv

GoalsAssists

  • N. Titkov31

Spartak Moscow

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ugalde60
  • M. Daku51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Spartak Moscow won 4–0 at Lokomotiv. The model had made a win for Spartak Moscow its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Aleksandr Rudenko (own goal) 11' for Spartak Moscow, Victor Parada 33' for Spartak Moscow, Manfred Ugalde 45' for Spartak Moscow, Esequiel Barco (penalty) 76' for Spartak Moscow. On expected goals it finished 1.03–2.63.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lokomotiv a 15.7% chance to finish in the bottom four: 10.5% after a win, 15.5% after a draw, 19.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.5%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.

For Spartak Moscow the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 69.6% going in: 75.8% after a win, 67.4% after a draw, 65.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 75.8%, 6.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Lokomotiv v Spartak Moscow has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 38% / 27% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 36% / 27% / 37%: the biggest move is Lokomotiv's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Lokomotiv win36%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Spartak Moscow win37%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.