Baltika vs Dinamo Makhachkala Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Baltika 0-1 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Baltika, 26% draw, 19% Dinamo Makhachkala — fair odds of 1.82, 3.85 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Russian Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Baltika at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Baltika vs Dinamo Makhachkala
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1E. LatyshonokG
- 21E. AndersonD
- 24L. MouyokoloD
- 4N. GassamaD
- 22M. BeveevM
- 10I. PetrovM
- 26I. BelikovM
- 77E. ĆivićM
- 73M. PetrovF
- 91B. GilF
- 7K. ShiltsovF
- 68M. RyadnoD
- 42V. PospelovM
- 2S. VaratynovD
- 69E. GolenkovF
- 3I. KirschD
- 14S. KovačM
- 81I. KukushkinG
- 8A. MendelM
- 18F. MoufiD
- 39T. MagomedovG
- 24A. AlarcónD
- 19K. ZinovichD
- 99M. AlibekovD
- 72A. SandrachukM
- 14D. KuzyaevM
- 6M. ApshatsevM
- 77T. SundukovM
- 47N. GlushkovM
- 10M. HosseinnezhadF
- 11MiroF
- 28S. SerderovF
- 9R. MagomedovM
- 88D. LesovoyM
- 8V. KhubulovM
- 33N. KarabashevG
- 13S. KagermazovD
- 21Abdulpasha DzhabrailovM
- 30D. AleksandrovM
- 43I. AkhmedovD
Form going into Baltika vs Dinamo Makhachkala
Baltika
Premier League
- W2-1Akron1 November 2026
- D1-1away to FC Krasnodar24 October 2026
- D0-0FC Rostov18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Akhmat11 October 2026
Dinamo Makhachkala
Premier League
- L0-3FC Rostov1 November 2026
- L0-2away to Zenit25 October 2026
- D1-1Akron17 October 2026
- L0-4away to FC Orenburg10 October 2026
What these results say
- Baltika went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Baltika failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Baltika had two goals or fewer.
- Dinamo Makhachkala did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Dinamo Makhachkala conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Dinamo Makhachkala failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Russia Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Baltika | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 17 |
| 11 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Baltika vs Dinamo Makhachkala
- 20 August 2026Baltika 1–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaCup
- 5 April 2026Dinamo Makhachkala 2–2 BaltikaPremier League
- 5 October 2025Baltika 2–0 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
- 15 February 2024Baltika 2–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaFriendlies Clubs
- 2 April 2023Dinamo Makhachkala 0–0 BaltikaFirst League
- 20 February 2023Dinamo Makhachkala 2–2 BaltikaFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Baltika and Dinamo Makhachkala
Baltika
GoalsAssists
- B. Gil51
Dinamo Makhachkala
GoalsAssists
- G. Agalarov50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Dinamo Makhachkala won 1–0 at Baltika. The model had leaned towards a win for Baltika at 55% and given a win for Dinamo Makhachkala 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: Kirill Zinovich 4' for Dinamo Makhachkala. On expected goals it finished 2.16–0.42.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Baltika a 6.3% chance to finish in the top four: 7.6% after a win, 4.3% after a draw, 2.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 2.5%, 3.8 points lower than before the match.
For Dinamo Makhachkala the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 64.6% going in: 52.4% after a win, 63.1% after a draw, 68.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 52.4%, 12.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Baltika v Dinamo Makhachkala has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 52% / 27% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 55% / 26% / 19%: the biggest move is Baltika's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Baltika win55%▲ +3
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Dinamo Makhachkala win19%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.