Krylia Sovetov vs FC Orenburg Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Krylia Sovetov 2-0 FC Orenburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Krylia Sovetov, 30% draw, 33% FC Orenburg — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Russian Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Krylia Sovetov at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Krylia Sovetov vs FC Orenburg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 80N. KokarevG
- 72Dani FernándezD
- 23N. ChernovD
- 47S. BozhinD
- 2K. PecheninD
- 22Fernando CostanzaM
- 4Y. GorshkovM
- 73V. ShitovM
- 14N. SaltykovM
- 20K. StolbovM
- 11A. RahmanovićF
- 7M. BanjacM
- 67Kazbek MukailovF
- 30S. PesjakovG
- 5D. OrozD
- 97I. AkhmetovM
- 15N. RasskazovD
- 17I. ChesnokovM
- 39E. FrolovG
- 8M. VityugovM
- 1B. OvsyannikovG
- 24M. SivisD
- 6J. PalaciosD
- 5A. TataevD
- 26E. TsenovD
- 78R. KulM
- 57E. BolotovM
- 10J. ThompsonM
- 8D. PueblaM
- 20D. RybchinskiyM
- 30G. GuzinaF
- 7J. GonzálezF
- 77A. KasadzhikovF
- 38A. KasimovD
- 4D. KhotulevD
- 22A. LukashovD
- 63O. MinatulaevM
- 11E. NazarenkoM
- 80M. PykhcheevM
- 44João SilvaD
Form going into Krylia Sovetov vs FC Orenburg
Krylia Sovetov
Premier League
- L0-3Zenit2 November 2026
- W2-0away to Rubin24 October 2026
- L1-2Fakel17 October 2026
- D1-1Spartak Moscow10 October 2026
FC Orenburg
Premier League
- D0-0CSKA Moscow1 November 2026
- W1-0away to Akhmat23 October 2026
- D2-2away to Rodina Moskva19 October 2026
- W4-0Dinamo Makhachkala10 October 2026
What these results say
- Krylia Sovetov failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Krylia Sovetov scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Krylia Sovetov conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Orenburg went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- FC Orenburg scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Orenburg kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Russia Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Krylia Sovetov | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 18 |
| 10 | FC Orenburg | 14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Krylia Sovetov vs FC Orenburg
- 10 May 2026FC Orenburg 1–0 Krylia SovetovPremier League
- 4 March 2026Krylia Sovetov 2–0 FC OrenburgCup
- 18 October 2025Krylia Sovetov 1–1 FC OrenburgPremier League
- 27 April 2025Krylia Sovetov 2–0 FC OrenburgPremier League
- 20 October 2024FC Orenburg 2–2 Krylia SovetovPremier League
- 4 May 2024Orenburg 2–1 Krylya SovetovPremier League
Leading scorers: Krylia Sovetov and FC Orenburg
Krylia Sovetov
GoalsAssists
- A. Rahmanović50
FC Orenburg
GoalsAssists
- J. Thompson42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Krylia Sovetov beat FC Orenburg 2–0. The model had made a win for Krylia Sovetov its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Amar Rahmanović 4' for Krylia Sovetov, Kazbek Mukailov 70' for Krylia Sovetov. Sent off: Aleksey Tataev (FC Orenburg) 51', Jhon Alex Palacios (FC Orenburg) 62'. On expected goals it finished 3.20–0.89.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Krylia Sovetov a 19.5% chance to finish in the bottom four: 13.1% after a win, 19.9% after a draw, 26.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.1%, 6.4 points lower than before the match.
For FC Orenburg the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 8.8% going in: 5.0% after a win, 8.5% after a draw, 10.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.9%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Krylia Sovetov v FC Orenburg has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 37% / 30% / 33%: the biggest move is Krylia Sovetov's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Krylia Sovetov win37%▼ −3
- Draw30%▲ +1
- FC Orenburg win33%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.