6 September 2026, 17:45 UTC

Baltika vs Lokomotiv Premier League prediction & result

Rostec Arena, Kaliningrad
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Baltika 0-1 Lokomotiv.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Baltika, 28% draw, 25% Lokomotiv — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Baltika at 47% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Baltika0%Draw5%Lokomotiv95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
Sergey Pinyaev
25'
Andrey Mostovoy
44'
César Montes
45'
Aleksandr Rudenko
🔁C. Offorout: M. Petrov
46'
🔁V. Pospelovout: B. Gil
46'
46'
🔁C. Montesout: M. Nenakhov
Eduardo Anderson
54'
60'
🔁G. Nyamsiout: E. Pogostnov
60'
🔁S. Pinyaevout: V. Rakov
🔁N. Titkovout: F. Moufi
61'
74'
🔁Z. Bakaevout: N. Komlichenko
🔁A. Mouridout: I. Belikov
79'
85'
⚽A. Mostovoyassist: N. Komlichenko
🔁A. Mendelout: K. Shiltsov
89'

Match stats — Baltika vs Lokomotiv

40%Possession60%
10Shots8
3On target1
5Corners4

Line-ups

Baltika 5-4-1
  • 1E. LatyshonokG
  • 22M. BeveevD
  • 2S. VaratynovD
  • 24L. MouyokoloD
  • 21E. AndersonD
  • 4N. GassamaD
  • 42V. PospelovM
  • 8A. MendelM
  • 5A. MouridM
  • 11N. TitkovM
  • 9C. OfforF
Substitutes
  • 81I. KukushkinG
  • 44E. LyubakovG
  • 18F. MoufiD
  • 77E. CivicD
  • 3I. KirschD
  • 68M. RyadnoD
  • 19M. ShnaptsevD
  • 7K. ShiltsovM
  • 73M. PetrovM
Coach: Andrey Talalaev
Lokomotiv 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. MitryushkinG
  • 85E. MorozovD
  • 5G. NyamsiD
  • 23C. MontesD
  • 3Lucas FassonD
  • 6S. BabkinM
  • 75I. EremeevM
  • 19A. RudenkoM
  • 7Z. BakaevM
  • 9S. PinyaevM
  • 77A. MostovoyF
Substitutes
  • 22I. LantratovG
  • 16D. VeselovG
  • 24M. NenakhovD
  • 59E. PogostnovD
  • 8A. KovalenkoM
  • 88M. ShchetininM
  • 47D. GodyaevM
  • 74D. ChevardinD
  • 27N. KomlichenkoF
Coach: Mikhail Galaktionov

Form going into Baltika vs Lokomotiv

Baltika

  • W3-0away to Rodina Moskva30 August 2026
  • D1-1Rubin24 August 2026

Lokomotiv

  • L0-1Dynamo29 August 2026
  • L2-3away to CSKA Moscow22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Baltika93241412+211
13Lokomotiv9144811-37

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Baltika vs Lokomotiv

  • 6 September 2026Baltika 0–1 LokomotivPremier League
  • 10 May 2026Lokomotiv 1–0 BaltikaPremier League
  • 23 October 2025Baltika 1–2 LokomotivCup
  • 16 August 2025Baltika 1–1 LokomotivPremier League
  • 13 August 2025Lokomotiv 2–0 BaltikaCup
  • 6 July 2024Lokomotiv 4–1 BaltikaFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Baltika and Lokomotiv

Baltika

  • B. Gil3 goals1 assists

Lokomotiv

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.